Match Info

League One - Round 14

Date: 23 October 2025, Thursday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Chilowicz A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Exeter City		Plymouth Argyle

	1	X	2
	2.95	3.25	2.3	Watch
	2.92	3.25	2.38	Watch
	3.11	3.34	2.38
	2.41	3.60	2.55	Watch
	2.94	3.28	2.37	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.39)	3.37 ↓ (3.45)	2.44 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
33.6%

Draw
27.9%

Plymouth Argyle
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

26.3%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

26.8%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Exeter City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	30.8%	46.2%

Exeter City - Plymouth Argyle Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Plymouth will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Plymouth: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Exeter (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Plymouth (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Plymouth (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Exeter (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Plymouth (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Whitworth J. (G) 26. Sweeney P. (C) 5. Fitzwater J. 4. Turns E. 14. Niskanen I. 2. McMillan J. 6. Brierley E. 21. Andrew D. 12. Cole R. 17. Higgins A. 9. Wareham J.	1. Hazard C. (G) 4. Wiredu B. 15. Mitchell A. 22. Galloway B. 8. Edwards J. (C) 23. Ibrahim B. 19. Boateng M. 29. Sorinola M. 7. Paterson J. 27. Pepple A. 9. Tolaj L.
Substitutes
10. Aitchison J. 23. Bycroft J. (G) 27. Magennis J. 29. McDonald K. 34. Oakes L. 37. Wilson K. 20. Woodhouse L.	21. Ashby-Hammond L. (G) 35. Dale O. 11. Mumba B. 18. Oseni O. 24. Roberts C. 2. Ross M. 6. Szucs K.
Coaches
Caldwell G.	Cleverley T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Cole R. ⚽,
28', Sweeney P. 🟨,
40', Andrew D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mitchell A. ↓, Ross M. ↑,
58', 2 - 0, Higgins A. ⚽, Brierley E. (A),
61', Edwards J. ↓, Mumba B. ↑,
70', Wareham J. ↓, Magennis J. ↑,
71', Higgins A. ↓, Aitchison J. ↑,
71', Wiredu B. ↓, Dale O. ↑,
76', McMillan J. 🟨,
78', Sorinola M. 🟨,
81', Ibrahim B. ↓, Roberts C. ↑,
81', Pepple A. ↓, Oseni O. ↑,
84', Cole R. ↓, McDonald K. ↑,
87', Oseni O. 🟨,
90+3', Andrew D. ↓, Woodhouse L. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 20 and 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 1.

Exeter is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Plymouth has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Exeter may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Plymouth has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Exeter: Borges P. (Knee Injury) Cox S. (Groin Injury) Mendes C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Plymouth: Amaechi X. (Hamstring Injury) MacKenzie J. (Shin Injury) Pleguezuelo J. (Knee Injury) Szucs K. (Knee Injury) Watts C. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Exeter: Swinkels S. (Knee Injury) Yfeko J. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:27. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Exeter won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.6:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
18.10.25	Stockport County - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
11.10.25	Exeter City - Reading	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Lincoln City - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Exeter City - Huddersfield Town	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Stevenage Borough - Exeter City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LTWLL
- Plymouth Argyle
English League One
18.10.25	Plymouth Argyle - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Plymouth Argyle - Wigan Athletic	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Burton Albion - Plymouth Argyle	0:4 ✺
English EFL Trophy
23.09.25	Plymouth Argyle - Tottenham Hotspur U21	6:2 ✺
English League One
20.09.25	Plymouth Argyle - Peterborough United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
15.04.23	Exeter City - Plymouth Argyle	0:1
31.10.22	Plymouth Argyle - Exeter City	4:2
English League Two
26.10.19	Exeter City - Plymouth Argyle	4:0
English EFL Trophy
03.10.17	Plymouth Argyle - Exeter City	3:2 penalties
English League Two
11.02.17	Plymouth Argyle - Exeter City	3:0
17.09.16	Exeter City - Plymouth Argyle	0:2
02.04.16	Exeter City - Plymouth Argyle	2:1

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