Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Libertad Asuncion		Cerro Porteño

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.9	2.4	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.37
	2.92	3.05	2.38	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.59
	2.97	3	2.53	Watch
	2.9	2.88	2.5
	2.98	2.96	2.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↓ (2.98)	2.98 ↓ (3.26)	2.47 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
31.6%

Draw
31%

Cerro Porteño
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

28.7%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

28.1%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Libertad Asuncion - Cerro Porteño Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 34. Villalba E. 5. Viera D. 4. Gimenez N. 14. Fretes A. 27. Molinas A. 6. Campuzano A. 15. Benitez A. 8. Carrizo F. 17. Espinoza Acosta M. D. 10. Melgarejo L. (C)	1. Martin A. (G) 23. Velazquez G. (C) 14. Quintana Rodriguez L. A. 22. Perez M. 35. Chaparro M. 10. Dominguez C. 5. Morel J. 30. Gimenez G. 31. Aliseda I. 40. Klimowicz M. 27. Torres J.
Substitutes
11. Aguilar G. 26. Caballero H. 32. Delvalle S. 28. Fernandez M. 31. Fernandez T. 18. Franco I. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 22. Martinez H. 2. Ramirez I. 19. Recalde J. 21. Sanabria L. 30. Vera O. R.	13. Benitez A. G. 32. Bobadilla C. 38. Cristaldo A. 2. Dominguez F. 25. Fernandez R. (G) 28. Franco C. 18. Melgarejo R. 24. Paez E. 16. Peralta F. 39. Servin L. J. 19. Vegetti P. 20. Viera W.
Coaches
Arce F.	Nunez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Morel J. ⚽, Klimowicz M. (A),
12', Gimenez G. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Carrizo F. ⚽,
45+2', Morel J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Klimowicz M. ↓, Bobadilla C. ↑,
58', Perez M. ↓, Dominguez F. ↑,
58', Gimenez G. ↓, Peralta F. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Melgarejo L. ⚽,
71', Morel J. ↓, Vegetti P. ↑,
71', Aliseda I. ↓, Paez E. ↑,
78', Espinoza Acosta M. D. ↓, Delvalle S. ↑,
78', Carrizo F. ↓, Franco I. ↑,
81', 2 - 2, Dominguez F. ⚽,
83', Franco I. 🟨,
83', Peralta F. 🟨,
85', Villalba E. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
85', Benitez A. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
88', Delvalle S. 🟨,
90', Molinas A. ↓, Caballero H. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 3, Dominguez C. ⚽, Bobadilla C. (A),

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Cerro Porteño may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:24. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Libertad won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	8	2	3	21:14	7	26
8	Cerro Porteno	13	5	2	6	15:14	1	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
18.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	1:0 ✺
02.03.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Libertad Asuncion	0:7 ✺
25.02.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWWL
- Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division
18.03.26	Rubio Ñu - Cerro Porteño	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Trinidense	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Cerro Porteño - Deportivo Recoleta	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
24.01.26	Cerro Porteño - Libertad Asuncion	1:1
23.11.25	Cerro Porteño - Libertad Asuncion	1:0
31.08.25	Libertad Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:1
05.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:0
26.01.25	Cerro Porteño - Libertad Asuncion	2:2
28.11.24	Cerro Porteño - Libertad Asuncion	2:3
14.09.24	Libertad Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	2:1

Upcoming Matches