Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 5

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Referee: Andrade Arreaga J. C. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Orense		Mushuc Runa

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.4	4	Watch
	1.9	3.25	3.5
	1.88	3.3	3.9	Watch
	1.9	3.54	4.08
	1.89	3.52	3.97	Watch
	1.85	3.2	3.75
	1.9	3.39	4.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.01)	3.37 ↑ (3.18)	3.89 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orense
49.1%

Draw
27.3%

Mushuc Runa
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

28.9%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Orense - Mushuc Runa Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Orense will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Orense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. (C) 6. Callegari S. 3. Mina S. 15. Caicedo B. 7. Vasquez S. 25. Jaramilo R. 11. Herrera A. 8. Armas D. 10. Burgoa V. 19. Bermudez M.	25. Formento R. (G) 26. Peralta K. 12. Carabali F. 2. Flor F. 33. Hernandez J. 77. Velasco K. 5. Davila E. 17. Pico O. 18. Gonzalez J. 9. Carrillo R. 14. Caicedo E.
Substitutes
52. Bravo Y. 17. Caicedo E. 9. Charpentier P. 53. Garces L. 50. Hernandez E. 5. Lorenzo A. 57. Mairongo S. 51. Ortiz C. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 14. Pluas E. 56. Rojas A. 77. Vinan B.	99. Angulo C. 19. Carcelen J. 11. Dibble N. 44. Gamboa M. 30. Ibarra R. 23. Lemos L. 10. Mina F. 7. Minda T. 6. Negro B. 42. Pabon W. (G) 8. Zambrano A.
Coaches
Robles A.	Velez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Herrera A. (Penalty Awarded),
16', 2 - 0, Bermudez M. ⚽, Burgoa V. (A),
23', Bermudez M. 🟨,
27', 3 - 0, Herrera A. ⚽,
45+6', Bermudez M. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Carrillo R. ↓, Dibble N. ↑,
46', Pico O. ↓, Mina F. ↑,
46', Caicedo E. ↓, Castelli F. ↑,
61', Armas D. ↓, Pluas E. ↑,
61', Burgoa V. ↓, Vinan B. ↑,
73', Peralta K. 🟨,
75', Mina F. 🟨,
78', 3 - 1, Mina F. ⚽,
81', Herrera A. 🟨,
86', Caicedo B. ↓, Garces L. ↑,
86', Vasquez S. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,
90', Carabali F. ↓, Minda T. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 2, Castelli F. ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 13 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orense won 2.

Orense is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Orense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Orense will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Orense won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Orense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Mushuc Runa - the odds 3.6 are the expected chance of winning is 25.51%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.03.26	Emelec - Orense	2:1 ✺
09.03.26	Orense - Manta	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Orense - Deportivo Macará	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
27.02.26	Técnico Universitario - Orense	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Orense - LDU Quito	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LTLTL
- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.03.26	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Macará	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	SD Aucas - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.09.25	Orense - Mushuc Runa	3:1
17.05.25	Mushuc Runa - Orense	2:5
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Orense	2:1
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.09.24	Mushuc Runa - Orense	3:0
05.04.24	Orense - Mushuc Runa	2:2
10.11.23	Orense - Mushuc Runa	1:0
03.06.23	Mushuc Runa - Orense	3:1

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