Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 6

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Quinonez L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Mushuc Runa		Emelec

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.2	3.1	2.95
	2.2	3.05	3.2	Watch
	2.33	3.05	3.5
	2.26	3.09	3.36	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.1
	2.28	2.96	3.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.66)	3.04 ↑ (3.01)	3.27 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
41.5%

Draw
30.4%

Emelec
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

31%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mushuc Runa's performance.

Emelec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Emelec might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Mushuc Runa - Emelec Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (C) 12. Carabali F. 2. Flor F. 26. Peralta K. 33. Hernandez J. 99. Angulo C. 23. Lemos L. 5. Davila E. 77. Velasco K. 81. Castelli F. 10. Mina F.	12. Ortiz P. (G) 27. Leon F. (C) 51. Valencia S. 4. Segura E. 14. Caicedo R. 5. Mina A. 6. Griffith V. 3. Guerrico I. 23. Bolanos M. 10. Pizzini F. 7. Klimowicz L.
Substitutes
14. Caicedo E. 19. Carcelen J. 9. Carrillo R. 11. Dibble N. 44. Gamboa M. 18. Gonzalez J. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 7. Minda T. 32. Orejuela C. 42. Pabon W. (G) 17. Pico O. 8. Zambrano A.	18. Carabali M. 21. Cevallos J. 15. Fragozo L. 20. Gonzaga J. 2. Leguizamon A. 30. Mina A. 8. Napoli G. 9. Neris J. 16. Quintero S. 28. Tobar B. 1. Valero M. (G)
Coaches
Velez P.	Sanchez V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Angulo C. ⚽,
37', Bolanos M. 🟥,
45+1', Davila E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pizzini F. ↓, Neris J. ↑,
61', Carabali F. 🟨,
61', Davila E. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
61', Lemos L. ↓, Zambrano A. ↑,
64', Flor F. 🟨,
71', Guerrico I. ↓, Fragozo L. ↑,
74', Mina F. ↓, Orejuela C. ↑,
82', Klimowicz L. ↓, Gonzaga J. ↑,
86', Castelli F. ↓, Carrillo R. ↑,
86', Angulo C. ↓, Gamboa M. ↑,
90+2', Caicedo R. ↓, Carabali M. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 0, Carabali F. ⚽,
90+6', Gamboa M. 🟥,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 12 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 1.

Mushuc Runa is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 16:39. (average 0.8:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.03.26	Orense - Mushuc Runa	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Macará	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	SD Aucas - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LTLTT
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.03.26	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Emelec - Orense	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Emelec	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Emelec - Delfín	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.07.25	Emelec - Mushuc Runa	1:0
29.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	1:1
11.08.24	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	3:0
08.03.24	Emelec - Mushuc Runa	0:0
23.09.23	Emelec - Mushuc Runa	3:1
23.04.23	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	0:0
01.10.22	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	0:0

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