Match Info

Virsliga - Round 28

Date: 31 August 2026, Monday

Location: Daugavas stadions (Liepāja)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Liepāja		Riga

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.50	4.33	1.42
	7.3	4.15	1.38	Watch
	6.89	5.1	1.41
	6.7	5.05	1.39	Watch
	6.6	5	1.37
	6.4	4.84	1.42	Watch
	6.2	4.6	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.51 ↑ (4.81)	4.72 ↑ (4.08)	1.39 ↓ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liepāja
14.2%

Draw
19.5%

Riga
66.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

18.9%

22.3%

58.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.4%

21.7%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liepāja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Riga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Riga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liepāja than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Riga than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Riga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Liepāja - Riga Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Riga (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Liepāja (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Liepāja (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Riga (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Oss D. (G) 35. Sorokins V. 26. Isajevs V. 34. Talisca 2. Straalman B. 5. Strumia L. (C) 28. Korobenko A. 7. Ogunniyi A. 18. Oloko E. 23. Haidara A. 9. Crysthyan	1. Zviedris K. (G) 23. Tonisevs M. 34. Cernomordijs A. (C) 33. Paulo Eduardo 17. Salazar A. 6. Saco C. 5. Wassom K. 99. Caio Ferreira 18. Oulad M'Hand S. 15. Robalo Pedro S. L. 19. Badamosi M.
Substitutes
11. Almazbekov B. 3. Iljins K. 29. Lakutis L. 44. Leidsman K. 77. Leite A. 4. Martins M. 17. Melnis B. 22. Mushindi I. 12. Petkovic D. (G)	40. Ankrah A. 22. Diop M. 8. Iago Siqueira 13. Jurkovskis R. 44. Kazainis M. (G) 60. Maviram N. 21. Musah B. 10. Reginaldo Ramires 25. Taiwo A.
Coaches
Torres C.	Gula A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Oloko E. ⚽, Ogunniyi A. (A),
6', Talisca 🟨,
17', 1 - 1, Badamosi M. ⚽, Cernomordijs A. (A),
27', 2 - 1, Oloko E. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Robalo Pedro S. L. ↓, Diop M. ↑,
57', Saco C. ↓, Iago Siqueira ↑,
58', 3 - 1, Ogunniyi A. ⚽, Oloko E. (A),
62', Caio Ferreira ↓, Taiwo A. ↑,
63', Badamosi M. 🟨,
65', Crysthyan ↓, Melnis B. ↑,
78', Ogunniyi A. ↓, Leidsman K. ↑,
78', Strumia L. 🟨,
78', Taiwo A. 🟨,
81', Tonisevs M. ↓, Reginaldo Ramires ↑,
90', Oloko E. ↓, Leite A. ↑,
90+1', Haidara A. ↓, Martins M. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 2, Taiwo A. ⚽,
90+5', Leidsman K. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Liepāja won 1.

Liepāja has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Riga is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Liepāja may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Liepāja has had a series of away games.

In this match, Riga is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Liepāja won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 11:49. (average 0.6:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Liepāja won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:24. (average 0.8:2.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Riga FC	33	24	7	2	90:31	59	79
4	FK Liepaja	33	13	7	13	46:46	0	46

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Liepāja
Latvian Virsliga
25.08.26	Auda Riga - Liepāja	1:0 ✺
21.08.26	Liepāja - Grobiņa	3:1 ✺
09.08.26	Super Nova - Liepāja	1:2 ✺
02.08.26	Tukums 2000 - Liepāja	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Austria Wien - Liepāja	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWLL
- Riga FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Riga - KÍ Klaksvík	2:1 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
23.08.26	RFS - Riga	3:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.08.26	KÍ Klaksvík - Riga	0:0 ✺
Latvian Cup
16.08.26	Riga - Metta	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Győri ETO - Riga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
21.06.26	Riga - Liepāja	4:0
03.05.26	Riga - Liepāja	1:0
07.03.26	Liepāja - Riga	2:1
03.10.25	Riga - Liepāja	3:0
Latvian Cup
18.09.25	Liepāja - Riga	0:4
Latvian Virsliga
19.07.25	Liepāja - Riga	2:3
19.05.25	Riga - Liepāja	2:0

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