Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free, New World TV
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Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	VIX App


	Lille		Brann

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.2	5.75
	1.55	4.65	5.7
	1.54	4.58	5.78
	1.42	4.75	6.86	Watch
	1.55	4.39	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.42)	4.51 ↓ (4.75)	6.08 ↓ (6.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
63.2%

Draw
21.2%

Brann
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.4%

19.9%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

77.1%

23.1%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Brann has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brann than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.7%	4.7%	15.6%

Lille - Brann Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Lille (2.25) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Lille (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - Lille (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lille will win (50 of 62 users predict this - 80.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.82% – 90.48%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lille will win (24 of 29 users predict this - 82.76%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 28 - 84.8%). Brann (votes: 5 - 15.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ozer B. (G) 22. Santos T. 18. Mbemba Ch. 38. Goffi A. 24. Verdonk C. 17. Mukau N. 10. Haraldsson H. (C) 6. Bentaleb N. 11. Sahraoui O. 29. Igamane H. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M.	1. Dyngeland M. (G) 23. Pedersen T. 3. Knudsen F. (C) 26. Fauske Helland E. 20. Dragsnes V. 10. Kornvig E. 18. Sorensen J. 8. Myhre F. 22. Magnusson S. 29. Holm N. 9. Castro N.
Substitutes
16. Bodart A. (G) 32. Bouaddi A. 14. Broholm M. 27. Correia F. 37. Costarelli M. 35. Diaoune S. 9. Giroud O. 23. Mandi A. 50. Merzouk S. (G) 3. Ngoy N.	4. Boakye N. 12. Bramel T. (G) 21. De Roeve D. 11. Finne B. 19. Gudmundsson E. 7. Hansen M. 24. Klausen M. (G) 14. Mathisen U. 27. Sande M. 6. Sery Larsen J.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Alexandersson F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Castro N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Pedersen T. ↓, De Roeve D. ↑,
54', 1 - 0, Igamane H. ⚽, Fernandez-Pardo M. (A),
55', Castro N. ↓, Gudmundsson E. ↑,
60', 1 - 1, Magnusson S. ⚽, Holm N. (A),
67', Igamane H. ↓, Giroud O. ↑,
68', Sahraoui O. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
69', Magnusson S. 🟨,
72', Holm N. ↓, Mathisen U. ↑,
77', Bentaleb N. ↓, Bouaddi A. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Giroud O. ⚽, Santos T. (A),
87', Haraldsson H. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
87', Santos T. ↓, Mandi A. ↑,
87', Magnusson S. ↓, Finne B. ↑,
87', Kornvig E. ↓, Sande M. ↑,
90+2', Mukau N. 🟨,

Preview

Lille is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Brann is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lille may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Brann has had a series of away games.

In this match, Lille is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Lille: Alexsandro (Thigh Injury) Andre B. (Injury) Gomes A. (Inactive) Mbappe E. (Inactive) Meunier T. (Groin Injury) Perraud R. (Injury) Raghouber U. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Brann: Haaland M. (International duty) Opsahl S. (Foot Injury) Remmem L. (International duty) Soltvedt J. (Injury) Torsvik J. (Knock) Wassberg N. (Knee Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
20.09.25	Lens - Lille	3:0 ✺
14.09.25	Lille - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Lorient - Lille	1:7 ✺
24.08.25	Lille - Monaco	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Brest - Lille	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWWWT
- SK Brann
Norwegian Eliteserien
20.09.25	Sandefjord - Brann	0:3 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
17.09.25	Mjøndalen - Brann	1:5 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
13.09.25	Brann - Vålerenga	3:2 ✺
31.08.25	Kristiansund - Brann	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.08.25	AEK Larnaca - Brann	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWTW

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