Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 4

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 6
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Lille		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.7	4.2	Watch
	1.8	3.8	4.1
	1.78	3.95	4.25
	1.78	4.01	4.55
	1.90	3.41	4.08	Watch
	1.85	3.7	3.8
	1.91	3.89	4.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.8)	3.78 ↓ (3.84)	4.18 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
51.9%

Draw
25.2%

Toulouse
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

24.9%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

24.4%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.8%	19%	7.1%

Lille - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 30 - 73.2%). Toulouse will win (votes: 3 - 7.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 19.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 59.6% – 86.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Lille (3.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Toulouse (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Toulouse (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ozer B. (G) 2. Mandi A. 3. Ngoy N. 4. Alexsandro 15. Perraud R. 21. Andre B. (C) 32. Bouaddi A. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M. 17. Mukau N. 27. Correia F. 9. Giroud O.	1. Restes G. (G) 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 4. Cresswell C. 3. McKenzie M. 15. Donnum A. 17. Francis A. 23. Casseres C. 24. Methalie D. 11. Hidalgo S. 9. Magri F. 10. Gboho Y.
Substitutes
6. Bentaleb N. 16. Bodart A. (G) 26. Gomes A. 29. Igamane H. 8. Mbappe E. 18. Mbemba Ch. 11. Sahraoui O. 22. Santos T. 24. Verdonk C.	30. Dominguez A. (G) 31. Edjouma N. 21. Faty E. 12. Kamanzi W. 22. Messali R. 77. Sauer M. 19. Sidibe D. 7. Vignolo J. 45. Vossah A.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Donnum A. 🟨,
45+2', Alexsandro ↓, Mbemba Ch. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', 0 - 1, Magri F. ⚽,
55', Hidalgo S. ↓, Messali R. ↑,
57', Restes G. 🟨,
62', Mukau N. ↓, Igamane H. ↑,
72', Messali R. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
72', Francis A. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
80', Vossah A. 🟥,
81', Fernandez-Pardo M. ↓, Mbappe E. ↑,
81', Correia F. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
81', Bouaddi A. ↓, Bentaleb N. ↑,
83', Giroud O. 🟨,
86', Martinez C. 🟨,
88', Magri F. 🟨,
89', Magri F. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
89', Methalie D. ↓, Sidibe D. ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Bentaleb N. (Pen),
90+6', Mbemba Ch. 🟨,
90+9', 2 - 1, Mbappe E. ⚽, Sahraoui O. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 3.

Lille is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Toulouse has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Lille is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Lille: Caillard M. (Injury) Meunier T. (Groin Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Lille: Santos T. (Knee Injury)

We predict that Lille will win today's game, with odds of 1.8.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lille won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:21. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.6:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
30.08.25	Lorient - Lille	1:7 ✺
24.08.25	Lille - Monaco	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Brest - Lille	3:3 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	West Ham United - Lille	1:1 ✺
06.08.25	Lille - Venezia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWTTW
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
30.08.25	Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain	3:6 ✺
24.08.25	Toulouse - Brest	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Nice - Toulouse	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Toulouse - Sevilla	1:1 ✺
02.08.25	Stuttgart - Toulouse	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
12.04.25	Toulouse - Lille	1:2
05.10.24	Lille - Toulouse	2:1
25.02.24	Toulouse - Lille	3:1
12.11.23	Lille - Toulouse	1:1
18.03.23	Toulouse - Lille	0:2
17.09.22	Lille - Toulouse	2:1
22.02.20	Lille - Toulouse	3:0

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