Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens)

Referee: Wattellier E. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, StarTimes App, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD, TV5 Monde Asia, TV5 Monde Pacifique
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Nova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Israel	5 STARS Israel
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 2
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Cignal Play
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport 2, Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-america	ESPN 4 South, TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, TV5 Monde
Venezuela	Disney+


	Lens		Lille

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.5	3.2	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.65
	2.22	3.45	3.2
	2.24	3.57	3.31
	1.50	3.99	6.80	Watch
	2.41	3.57	2.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.4)	3.6 ↑ (3.45)	3.69 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lens
45.5%

Draw
27.6%

Lille
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

27.5%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

28.9%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lens's performance.

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lille might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	18.2%	72.7%

Lens - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Lens will win (votes: 3 - 9.4%). Lille will win (votes: 23 - 71.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 56.3% – 87.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Lille (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lille will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Lens (votes: 1 - 10%). Lille (votes: 8 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Risser R. (G) 24. Gradit J. 6. Baidoo S. 20. Sarr M. 2. Aguilar R. 8. Sangare M. 28. Thomasson A. (C) 14. Udol M. 10. Thauvin F. 22. Said W. 38. Fofana R.	1. Ozer B. (G) 23. Mandi A. 3. Ngoy N. 18. Mbemba Ch. 15. Perraud R. 6. Bentaleb N. 32. Bouaddi A. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M. 10. Haraldsson H. 27. Correia F. 9. Giroud O. (C)
Substitutes
23. Abdulhamid S. 26. Bermont A. 11. Edouard O. 25. Ganiou I. 29. Guilavogui M. 1. Gurtner R. (G) 19. Sima A. 7. Sotoca F. 18. Sylla F.	16. Bodart A. (G) 38. Goffi A. 26. Gomes A. 29. Igamane H. 8. Mbappe E. 17. Mukau N. 11. Sahraoui O. 22. Santos T. 24. Verdonk C.
Coaches
Sage P.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', Perraud R. ↓, Verdonk C. ↑,
28', 1 - 0, Said W. ⚽,
36', Verdonk C. 🟨,
43', 2 - 0, Thauvin F. ⚽, Said W. (A),
45+1', Mandi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Correia F. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
52', 3 - 0, Fofana R. ⚽,
59', Haraldsson H. ↓, Mukau N. ↑,
69', Fofana R. ↓, Edouard O. ↑,
69', Aguilar R. ↓, Abdulhamid S. ↑,
74', Said W. ↓, Guilavogui M. ↑,
77', Bentaleb N. ↓, Mbappe E. ↑,
77', Giroud O. ↓, Igamane H. ↑,
83', Udol M. 🟨,
86', Sangare M. ↓, Sylla F. ↑,
86', Thauvin F. ↓, Sotoca F. ↑,
90+5', Mbemba Ch. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lens won 0.

Recent performances by Lens have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lille is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Lens: Jhoanner Chavez (Ankle Injury) Machado D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lille: Alexsandro (Thigh Injury) Meunier T. (Groin Injury) Raghouber U. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Lens won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 11:22. (average 0.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lens won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
14.09.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Lens	2:0 ✺
29.08.25	Lens - Brest	3:1 ✺
24.08.25	Le Havre - Lens	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Lens - Lyon	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Lens - RB Leipzig	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWWLW
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
14.09.25	Lille - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Lorient - Lille	1:7 ✺
24.08.25	Lille - Monaco	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Brest - Lille	3:3 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	West Ham United - Lille	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
30.03.25	Lille - Lens	1:0
26.10.24	Lens - Lille	0:2
29.03.24	Lille - Lens	2:1
08.10.23	Lens - Lille	1:1
04.03.23	Lens - Lille	1:1
09.10.22	Lille - Lens	1:0
16.04.22	Lille - Lens	1:2

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