Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 2 October 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Afghanistan	23:30	Asr TV, Meraj Sport
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	16:00	FOX Sports 3
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 4
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	16:00	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, TNT, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	ESPN Premium
China	03:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	14:00	ESPN 2
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	C+ France, Free
Georgia	23:00	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Sport 3
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 1
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
India	00:30	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio, TV8
Japan	04:00	Wowow Live
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	13:00	Caliente TV
Myanmar	01:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 5
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan
North Central America	—	ESPN Norte
North Macedonia	21:00	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 2
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport PSL
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	00:00	Futbol TV
Turkey	22:00	TRT Spor
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports 5, Virgin Media More
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, Sport 24 At Sea, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Uzbekistan	00:00	Zor TV
Venezuela	15:00	Inter
Vietnam	02:00	TV 360
International	19:00	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app


	Lille		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	5	4.1	1.65
	4.8	4	1.66
	5.25	4.35	1.62
	5.34	4.2	1.66
	5.09	4.13	1.68	Watch
	5.5	4	1.65
	5.46	4.33	1.66
	5.25	4.35	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↓ (5.85)	4.18 ↓ (4.36)	1.65 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: UniMás

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Current Win Probability

Lille
18.5%

Draw
23.1%

Real Madrid
58.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

16.4%

21.9%

61.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.5%

22.1%

61.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.4%	2.8%	93.8%

Lille - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (134 of 143 users predict this - 93.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 89.73% – 97.69%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Chevalier L. (G) 22. Santos T. 18. Diakite B. 4. Alexsandro 5. Gudmundsson G. 20. Bakker M. 32. Bouaddi A. 21. Andre B. (C) 10. Cabella R. 23. Zhegrova E. 9. David J.	13. Lunin A. (G) 2. Carvajal D. (C) 3. Militao E. 22. Rudiger A. 23. Mendy F. 6. Camavinga E. 14. Tchouameni A. 8. Valverde F. 5. Bellingham J. 7. Vinicius Junior 16. Endrick
Substitutes
39. Baret L. 27. Bayo M. 16. Caillard M. (G) 35. Cossier I. 19. Fernandez-Pardo M. 47. Lachaab Y. 2. Mandi A. 1. Mannone V. (G) 12. Meunier T. 11. Sahraoui O.	26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 15. Guler A. 17. Lucas 9. Mbappe K. 34. Mestre S. (G) 10. Modric L. 31. Ramon J. 11. Rodrygo 18. Vallejo J.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Ancelotti C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+3', 1 - 0, David J. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mendy F. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
46', Endrick 🟨,
57', Endrick ↓, Modric L. ↑,
57', Militao E. ↓, Mbappe K. ↑,
59', Camavinga E. 🟨,
67', Camavinga E. ↓, Guler A. ↑,
72', Cabella R. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
78', Bellingham J. 🟨,
79', Rudiger A. 🟨,
81', Modric L. 🟨,
88', Bakker M. ↓, Meunier T. ↑,
90+3', David J. 🟨,
90+6', Diakite B. 🟨,

Preview

Lille is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Real in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Real could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Real is a favorite.

There will not play in Lille: Gomes A. (Red Card) Haraldsson H. (Leg Injury) Ismaily (Injury) Mbappe E. (Muscle Injury) Mukau N. (Ankle Injury) Umtiti S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Knee Injury) Ceballos D. (Ankle Injury) Courtois T. (Muscle Injury) Diaz B. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Real: Mbappe K. (Hamstring Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
28.09.24	Le Havre - Lille	0:3 ✺
21.09.24	Lille - Strasbourg	3:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.24	Sporting Lisbon - Lille	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
13.09.24	Saint-Étienne - Lille	1:0 ✺
01.09.24	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 WTLLL
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
29.09.24	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
24.09.24	Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	3:2 ✺
21.09.24	Real Madrid - Espanyol	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.24	Real Madrid - Stuttgart	3:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.09.24	Real Sociedad - Real Madrid	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWWWW

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