Match Info

LaLiga - Round 33

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611, DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Idman TV
Bangladesh	Begin
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN 3, TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Cuba	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Laos	beIN Connect
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Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
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Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga 2, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, Dsports 1311, DSports 310
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Zor TV
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV Online


	Real Madrid		Deportivo Alavés

	1	X	2
	1.22	6.5	12	Watch
	1.23	6.4	12.5	Watch
	1.23	7.2	12.5
	1.24	7.05	12.05	Watch
	1.22	6	11
	1.26	6.8	13.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.3)	6.66 ↑ (5.69)	12.24 ↑ (9.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
77.8%

Draw
14.4%

Deportivo Alavés
7.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

73.2%

16.7%

10.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.9%

16.5%

10%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Deportivo Alavés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.7%	5.5%	1.8%

Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Alavés (2.17) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.75 - Real (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (50 of 54 users predict this - 92.59%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.6% – 99.58%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 6 - 75%). Alavés (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lunin A. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 24. Huijsen D. 3. Eder Militao 18. Carreras A. 8. Valverde F. (C) 14. Tchouameni A. 5. Bellingham J. 15. Guler A. 10. Mbappe K. 7. Vinicius Junior	1. Sivera A. (G) 17. Jonny Otto 14. Tenaglia N. 24. Parada V. 3. Yusi 7. Perez A. 8. Blanco A. (C) 4. Suarez D. 18. Guridi J. 15. Boye L. 11. Martinez T.
Substitutes
4. Alaba D. 6. Camavinga E. 2. Carvajal D. 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 30. Mastantuono F. 23. Mendy F. 43. Mestre S. (G) 45. Pitarch T. 22. Rudiger A.	10. Alena C. 20. Calebe 22. Diabate I. 9. Diaz M. 13. Fernandez R. (G) 6. Guevara A. 19. Ibanez P. 16. Koski V. 34. Manas A. 27. Munoz E. 5. Pacheco J. 31. Swiderski G. (G)
Coaches
Arbeloa A.	Sanchez Flores Q.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Mbappe K. ⚽, Guler A. (A),
35', Tchouameni A. 🟨,
45+2', Eder Militao ↓, Rudiger A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 2 - 0, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Valverde F. (A),
58', Bellingham J. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
58', Guler A. ↓, Mastantuono F. ↑,
58', Guridi J. ↓, Alena C. ↑,
58', Suarez D. ↓, Ibanez P. ↑,
63', Tchouameni A. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
63', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,
66', Yusi ↓, Calebe ↑,
66', Boye L. ↓, Diabate I. ↑,
75', Blanco A. ↓, Guevara A. ↑,
90', Perez A. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 1, Martinez T. ⚽, Guevara A. (A),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 5.

Recent form of Real has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alavés's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Alavés may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Real is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Real: Asencio R. (Illness) Courtois T. (Thigh Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Alavés: Garces F. (Suspended) Protesoni C. (Muscle Injury) Rebbach A. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Real won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 44:11. (average 2.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 24:4. (average 3:0.5).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 20.23% Alaves: 0.4%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18:8	10	15
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11:6	5	11

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid - the odds 1.3 are the expected chance of winning is 73.21%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League
15.04.26	Bayern Munich - Real Madrid	4:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
10.04.26	Real Madrid - Girona	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.04.26	Real Madrid - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.04.26	Mallorca - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LTLLW
- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga
11.04.26	Real Sociedad - Deportivo Alavés	3:3 ✺
05.04.26	Deportivo Alavés - Osasuna	2:2 ✺
22.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Deportivo Alavés	3:4 ✺
13.03.26	Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Valencia - Deportivo Alavés	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
14.12.25	Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid	1:2
13.04.25	Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid	0:1
24.09.24	Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	3:2
14.05.24	Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	5:0
21.12.23	Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid	0:1
19.02.22	Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	3:0
14.08.21	Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid	1:4

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