Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Delajod W. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Italy	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 4
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Lille		Strasbourg

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.3	2.88	Watch
	2.42	3.35	2.92	Watch
	2.54	3.42	2.92
	2.44	3.44	2.84	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.8
	2.54	3.5	2.98	Watch
	2.5	3.33	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (1.85)	3.38 ↓ (3.76)	2.88 ↓ (3.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
38.8%

Draw
28.2%

Strasbourg
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

25.1%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

26.2%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lille's form might have worsened.

Strasbourg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Strasbourg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+14.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Strasbourg than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Strasbourg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.6%	8.7%	21.7%

Lille - Strasbourg Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 32 - 69.6%). Strasbourg will win (votes: 10 - 21.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 8.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 56.3% – 82.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Strasbourg (2.11) (votes: 5 - 71.4%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Lille (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lille will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 19 - 73.1%). Strasbourg (votes: 5 - 19.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ozer B. (G) 23. Mandi A. 3. Ngoy N. 18. Mbemba Ch. 22. Santos T. 15. Perraud R. 17. Mukau N. 32. Bouaddi A. 8. Mbappe E. 9. Giroud O. (C) 7. Fernandez-Pardo M.	39. Penders M. (G) 22. Doue G. 23. Sarr M. (C) 6. Doukoure I. 3. Chilwell B. 32. Barco V. 29. El Mourabet S. 7. Moreira D. 19. Enciso J. 20. Godo M. 9. Panichelli J.
Substitutes
4. Alexsandro 39. Baret L. 16. Bodart A. (G) 42. Boussadia S. 14. Broholm M. 27. Correia F. 35. Diaoune S. 12. Meunier T. 24. Verdonk C.	27. Amo-Ameyaw S. 24. Hogsberg L. 1. Johnsson K. (G) 83. Luis R. 11. Nanasi S. 2. Omobamidele A. 42. Ouattara A. 16. Paez K. 25. Yassine G.
Coaches
Genesio B.	O'Neil G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
25', 0 - 1, Panichelli J. ⚽, Doue G. (A),
26', 0 - 2, Enciso J. ⚽, Panichelli J. (A),
36', Doue G. 🟨,
36', Bouaddi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', El Mourabet S. 🟨,
58', 0 - 3, Godo M. ⚽, Moreira D. (A),
61', El Mourabet S. ↓, Ouattara A. ↑,
64', Perraud R. 🟨,
69', Mandi A. ↓, Meunier T. ↑,
69', Santos T. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
69', Perraud R. ↓, Verdonk C. ↑,
72', 0 - 4, Godo M. ⚽, Enciso J. (A),
76', Doue G. ↓, Luis R. ↑,
76', Moreira D. ↓, Amo-Ameyaw S. ↑,
76', Enciso J. ↓, Nanasi S. ↑,
80', Giroud O. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
87', Panichelli J. ↓, Yassine G. ↑,
87', Mbappe E. ↓, Broholm M. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 4, Fernandez-Pardo M. ⚽, Broholm M. (A),

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 1.

Lille has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Strasbourg is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lille may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Lille: Bentaleb N. (Injury) Haraldsson H. (Yellow Cards) Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Strasbourg: Amougou M. (Ankle Injury) Lemarechal F. (Inactive) Oyedele M. (Groin Injury) Sow S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Lille: Andre B. (Injury) Gomes A. (Inactive) Sahraoui O. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Lille won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:21. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:5. (average 1.5:0.6).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lille: 4.48% Strasbourg: 0.71%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10
9	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10:10	0	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Celta de Vigo - Lille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
16.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Lille	3:0 ✺
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Lille - Lyon	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
03.01.26	Lille - Rennes	0:2 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Lusitanos Saint-Maur - Lille	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLW
- RC Strasbourg
French Ligue 1
18.01.26	Strasbourg - Metz	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
10.01.26	Avranches - Strasbourg	0:6 ✺
French Ligue 1
03.01.26	Nice - Strasbourg	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.25	Strasbourg - Dunkerque	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Strasbourg - Breiðablik	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
09.11.25	Strasbourg - Lille	2:0
25.01.25	Strasbourg - Lille	2:1
21.09.24	Lille - Strasbourg	3:3
21.04.24	Lille - Strasbourg	1:0
20.12.23	Strasbourg - Lille	2:1
12.02.23	Lille - Strasbourg	2:0
14.10.22	Strasbourg - Lille	0:3

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