Match Info

LaLiga - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Reale Arena (San Sebastian)

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Solh Sports 1
Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 5, DStv Now, Startimes Am'mobi, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 1
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Belgium	DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, TSN 4, TSN+
China	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4, ART Sport 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 22


	Real Sociedad		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.2	1.6	Watch
	5.5	4.1	1.58
	5.4	4.15	1.62	Watch
	5.6	4.51	1.6
	12.81	6.40	1.21	Watch
	5	3.8	1.62
	5.79	4.44	1.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.48 ↑ (5.27)	4.51 ↑ (3.97)	1.55 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad
15.1%

Draw
21.7%

Real Madrid
63.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.1%

24%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Madrid's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.5%	1.5%	93.9%

Real Sociedad - Real Madrid Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Real (1.93) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (62 of 66 users predict this - 93.94%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.18% – 99.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (32 of 32 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 34 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 34 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Remiro A. (G) 6. Elustondo A. 5. Zubeldia I. 16. Caleta-Car D. 17. Gomez S. 28. Marin P. 22. Goti Lopez M. 4. Gorrotxategi J. 7. Barrenetxea A. 11. Guedes G. 10. Oyarzabal M. (C)	1. Courtois T. (G) 2. Carvajal D. (C) 3. Eder Militao 24. Huijsen D. 18. Carreras A. 14. Tchouameni A. 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 15. Guler A. 7. Vinicius Junior 10. Mbappe K.
Substitutes
2. Aramburu J. 32. Fraga A. (G) 19. Karrikaburu J. 14. Kubo T. 13. Marrero U. (G) 31. Martin J. 3. Munoz A. 20. Odriozola A. 18. Soler C. 8. Turrientes B. 21. Zakharyan A.	4. Alaba D. 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 17. Asencio R. 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 13. Lunin A. (G) 30. Mastantuono F. 43. Mestre S. (G) 11. Rodrygo 8. Valverde F.
Coaches
Francisco S.	Alonso X.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', Zubeldia I. 🟨,
12', 0 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽,
32', Huijsen D. 🟥,
34', Alonso X. 🟨,
44', 0 - 2, Guler A. ⚽, Mbappe K. (A),
45+1', Barrenetxea A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Diaz B. ↓, Valverde F. ↑,
56', 1 - 2, Oyarzabal M. (Pen),
57', Elustondo A. ↓, Aramburu J. ↑,
57', Goti Lopez M. ↓, Soler C. ↑,
63', Mbappe K. 🟨,
66', Marin P. ↓, Kubo T. ↑,
66', Guedes G. ↓, Zakharyan A. ↑,
68', Vinicius Junior ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
68', Ceballos D. ↓, Asencio R. ↑,
78', Gorrotxategi J. ↓, Karrikaburu J. ↑,
82', Carvajal D. ↓, Alexander-Arnold T. ↑,
88', Guler A. ↓, Alaba D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad won 1.

In recent matches, Real Sociedad has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Recently, Real Sociedad has had a series of away games.

In this match, Real is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Real Sociedad: Herrera Y. (Hamstring Injury) Oskarsson O. (Thigh Injury) Ruperez I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Real: Bellingham J. (Shoulder Injury) Camavinga E. (Ankle Injury) Endrick (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Rudiger A. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 23:39. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Sociedad won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
30.08.25	Real Oviedo - Real Sociedad	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Real Sociedad - Espanyol	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Valencia - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Bournemouth - Real Sociedad	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Bournemouth - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LTTTT
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
30.08.25	Real Madrid - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Real Oviedo - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
19.08.25	Real Madrid - Osasuna	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.08.25	Swarovski Tirol - Real Madrid	0:4 ✺
FIFA Club World Cup
09.07.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
24.05.25	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	2:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
01.04.25	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:4 ET
26.02.25	Real Sociedad - Real Madrid	0:1
Spanish LaLiga
14.09.24	Real Sociedad - Real Madrid	0:2
26.04.24	Real Sociedad - Real Madrid	0:1
17.09.23	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	2:1
02.05.23	Real Sociedad - Real Madrid	2:0

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