Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 17 September 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Rumsas D. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport 4, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport GOtv Football
Albania	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport 5
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 5, Pickx+ Sports 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3, Moja TV
Brazil	Max
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, Viaplay
France	C+ France, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Italy	Sky Sport 255
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 4, ART Sport 4
Laos	beIN Connect
Mexico	HBO Max
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 6
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-central-america	ESPN 5 Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Maximo 360
South-america	ESPN 7 Latin America, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 5, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 4, TNT Sports Digital Exclusive
Usa	CBS, Flow Sports 1, FuboTV, Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app


	Sporting Lisbon		Lille

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.33	6.25
	1.51	4.2	6.25
	1.49	4.55	6.7
	1.5	4.5	6.92
	1.5	4.5	6.74	Watch
	1.5	4.33	7
	1.5	4.68	7.4
	1.49	4.55	6.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.81)	4.46 ↑ (3.83)	6.75 ↑ (4.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
64.2%

Draw
21.6%

Lille
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

25.1%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

24.6%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sporting Lisbon's performance.

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lille might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sporting Lisbon that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lille could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.8%	10.4%	4.8%

Sporting Lisbon - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: Sporting Lisbon will win (104 of 120 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.59% – 92.75%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Israel F. (G) 6. Debast Z. 25. Inacio G. 26. Diomande O. 57. Quenda G. 5. Morita H. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 21. Catamo G. 17. Trincao 9. Gyokeres V. 8. Goncalves P.	30. Chevalier L. (G) 12. Meunier T. 2. Mandi A. 18. Diakite B. 4. Alexsandro 20. Bakker M. 23. Zhegrova E. 21. Andre B. (C) 8. Gomes A. 11. Sahraoui O. 9. David J.
Substitutes
20. Araujo M. 23. Braganca D. 41. Diego Callai (G) 10. Edwards M. 47. Esgaio R. 22. Fresneda I. 19. Harder C. 2. Matheus Reis 11. Santos N. 99. Silva F. (G)	27. Bayo M. 32. Bouaddi A. 10. Cabella R. 16. Caillard M. (G) 19. Fernandez-Pardo M. 5. Gudmundsson G. 1. Mannone V. (G) 22. Santos T. 36. Toure O.
Coaches
Amorim R.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Inacio G. ↓, Matheus Reis ↑,
21', Gomes A. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Gyokeres V. ⚽, Goncalves P. (A),
40', Gomes A. 🟨,
40', David J. 🟨,
45+1', Morita H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Morita H. ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
56', Andre B. 🟨,
64', Meunier T. ↓, Santos T. ↑,
64', David J. ↓, Fernandez-Pardo M. ↑,
64', Mandi A. ↓, Bouaddi A. ↑,
65', 2 - 0, Debast Z. ⚽, Braganca D. (A),
71', Sahraoui O. ↓, Cabella R. ↑,
72', Bouaddi A. 🟨,
73', Quenda G. ↓, Araujo M. ↑,
82', Bakker M. ↓, Gudmundsson G. ↑,
86', Debast Z. 🟨,
88', Trincao ↓, Harder C. ↑,

Preview

Sporting in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Lille is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Sporting is a favorite.

There will not play in Sporting: Kovacevic V. (Ankle Injury) Quaresma E. (Ankle Injury) St. Juste J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Lille: Haraldsson H. (Leg Injury) Ismaily (Injury) Mbappe E. (Injury) Umtiti S. (Knee Injury)

Our prediction for today's Sporting to win the game is with odds 1.64.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
13.09.24	Arouca - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
31.08.24	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	2:0 ✺
23.08.24	Farense - Sporting Lisbon	0:5 ✺
17.08.24	Nacional - Sporting Lisbon	1:6 ✺
09.08.24	Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWWW
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
13.09.24	Saint-Étienne - Lille	1:0 ✺
01.09.24	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.08.24	Slavia Prague - Lille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
24.08.24	Lille - Angers	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.08.24	Lille - Slavia Prague	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWW

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