Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 17 September 2024, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Rumsas D. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport 4, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport GOtv Football
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	16:00	ESPN 3
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Sport 5
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 5, Pickx+ Sports 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 3, Moja TV
Brazil	16:00	Max
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 1
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
China	03:00	iQIYI
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 5
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, Viaplay
France	21:00	C+ France, Free
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
India	00:30	Sony LIV
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect
Italy	21:00	Sky Sport 255
Kosovo	21:00	ART Motion Sport 4, ART Sport 4
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Mexico	13:00	HBO Max
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 6
New Zealand	07:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Central America	—	ESPN 5 Norte
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Maximo 360
South America	—	ESPN 7 Latin America, ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 5, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6, Sunrise TV
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 5
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 4, TNT Sports Digital Exclusive
Usa	15:00	CBS, Flow Sports 1, FuboTV, Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Inter
Vietnam	02:00	K+, ON Plus, TV 360
International	19:00	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app


	Sporting Lisbon		Lille

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.33	6.25
	1.51	4.2	6.25
	1.49	4.55	6.7
	1.5	4.5	6.92
	1.5	4.5	6.74	Watch
	1.5	4.33	7
	1.5	4.68	7.4
	1.49	4.55	6.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.81)	4.46 ↑ (3.83)	6.75 ↑ (4.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Network on TV: CBSSN

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
64.2%

Draw
21.6%

Lille
14.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53%

25.1%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

24.6%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sporting Lisbon's performance.

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lille might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sporting Lisbon that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lille could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.8%	10.4%	4.8%

Sporting Lisbon - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: Sporting Lisbon will win (104 of 120 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.59% – 92.75%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Israel F. (G) 6. Debast Z. 25. Inacio G. 26. Diomande O. 57. Quenda G. 5. Morita H. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 21. Catamo G. 17. Trincao 9. Gyokeres V. 8. Goncalves P.	30. Chevalier L. (G) 12. Meunier T. 2. Mandi A. 18. Diakite B. 4. Alexsandro 20. Bakker M. 23. Zhegrova E. 21. Andre B. (C) 8. Gomes A. 11. Sahraoui O. 9. David J.
Substitutes
20. Araujo M. 23. Braganca D. 41. Diego Callai (G) 10. Edwards M. 47. Esgaio R. 22. Fresneda I. 19. Harder C. 2. Matheus Reis 11. Santos N. 99. Silva F. (G)	27. Bayo M. 32. Bouaddi A. 10. Cabella R. 16. Caillard M. (G) 19. Fernandez-Pardo M. 5. Gudmundsson G. 1. Mannone V. (G) 22. Santos T. 36. Toure O.
Coaches
Amorim R.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Inacio G. ↓, Matheus Reis ↑,
21', Gomes A. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Gyokeres V. ⚽, Goncalves P. (A),
40', Gomes A. 🟨,
40', David J. 🟨,
45+1', Morita H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Morita H. ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
56', Andre B. 🟨,
64', Meunier T. ↓, Santos T. ↑,
64', David J. ↓, Fernandez-Pardo M. ↑,
64', Mandi A. ↓, Bouaddi A. ↑,
65', 2 - 0, Debast Z. ⚽, Braganca D. (A),
71', Sahraoui O. ↓, Cabella R. ↑,
72', Bouaddi A. 🟨,
73', Quenda G. ↓, Araujo M. ↑,
82', Bakker M. ↓, Gudmundsson G. ↑,
86', Debast Z. 🟨,
88', Trincao ↓, Harder C. ↑,

Preview

Sporting in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Lille is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Sporting is a favorite.

There will not play in Sporting: Kovacevic V. (Ankle Injury) Quaresma E. (Ankle Injury) St. Juste J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Lille: Haraldsson H. (Leg Injury) Ismaily (Injury) Mbappe E. (Injury) Umtiti S. (Knee Injury)

Our prediction for today's Sporting to win the game is with odds 1.64.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
13.09.24	Arouca - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
31.08.24	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	2:0 ✺
23.08.24	Farense - Sporting Lisbon	0:5 ✺
17.08.24	Nacional - Sporting Lisbon	1:6 ✺
09.08.24	Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWWW
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
13.09.24	Saint-Étienne - Lille	1:0 ✺
01.09.24	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.08.24	Slavia Prague - Lille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
24.08.24	Lille - Angers	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.08.24	Lille - Slavia Prague	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWW

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