Match Info

SCOTLAND: Championship - Round 21

Date: 14 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Tony Macaroni Arena (Livingston)

Referee: McFarlane D. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Livingston		Airdrieonians

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	8	Watch
	1.31	4.6	7.5
	1.3	5.5	8.5	Watch
	1.33	4.97	8.98	Watch
	1.33	4.8	8
	1.34	5.05	7.28	Watch
	1.3	5.5	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.36)	5.02 ↑ (4.76)	8.11 ↑ (7.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Livingston
70.2%

Draw
18.4%

Airdrieonians
11.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.1%

19.5%

12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

13.4%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Livingston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Airdrieonians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Livingston than the current prediction. (-23.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Livingston that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Airdrieonians than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Airdrieonians could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	8.3%	0%

Livingston - Airdrieonians Predictions

Users Predictions: Livingston will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Prior J. (G) 12. Brandon J. (C) 5. McGowan R. 27. Wilson D. 11. Fraser R. 8. Pittman S. 22. Shinnie A. 10. Kelly S. 23. Muirhead R. 17. May S. 26. Montano C.	30. Wright K. (G) 2. MacDonald D. 16. Watson C. 4. McCabe R. 3. Hancock M. 18. Gallagher G. 6. McMaster D. 23. Strapp L. 24. Mochrie C. R. 10. Frizzell A. (C) 7. Wilson B.
Substitutes
19. Finlayson D. 18. Green O. 4. Jackson B. 40. Lawal S. 6. McAlear R. 14. Newman J. (G) 38. Stark C. 16. Winter A.	44. Armstrong R. 21. Cooper C. 11. Diack R. 19. Dunlop E. 25. Graham S. 17. McGrattan L. 8. McGregor L. 20. Melrose C. (G) 27. Rowley C.
Coaches
Martindale D.	McCabe R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Strapp L. (Own goal),
13', 1 - 1, Mochrie C. R. ⚽, Frizzell A. (A),
33', McMaster D. 🟨,
36', MacDonald D. 🟨,
45+3', Strapp L. ↓, Graham S. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', McCabe R. ↓, McGrattan L. ↑,
47', Wilson D. 🟨,
49', May S. 🟨,
59', 2 - 1, Fraser R. ⚽, Kelly S. (A),
69', Mochrie C. R. ↓, Diack R. ↑,
70', Kelly S. ↓, Finlayson D. ↑,
78', Montano C. ↓, Winter A. ↑,
78', May S. ↓, McAlear R. ↑,
79', Wilson B. ↓, McGregor L. ↑,
79', Gallagher G. ↓, Armstrong R. ↑,
81', Brandon J. 🟨,
82', McAlear R. 🟨,
85', Shinnie A. ↓, Culbert S. ↑,
90', Armstrong R. 🟨,
90', Diack R. 🟨,
90+3', Culbert S. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Livingston won 5.

Recent matches Livingston is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Airdrieonians has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Livingston could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Livingston is certain favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Livingston won 15 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 40:10 (average 2.7:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Livingston won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 18:5 (average 2.6:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Livingston FC
Scottish Football Championship
04.01.25	Queens Park - Livingston	2:0 ✺
28.12.24	Raith Rovers - Livingston	2:1 ✺
21.12.24	Livingston - Ayr United	0:1 ✺
17.12.24	Airdrieonians - Livingston	0:3 ✺
13.12.24	Livingston - Partick Thistle	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLLWW
- Airdrieonians FC
Scottish Football Championship
28.12.24	Hamilton Academical - Airdrieonians	3:2 ✺
21.12.24	Airdrieonians - Partick Thistle	0:2 ✺
17.12.24	Airdrieonians - Livingston	0:3 ✺
14.12.24	Airdrieonians - Greenock Morton	2:2 ✺
07.12.24	Queens Park - Airdrieonians	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
17.12.24	Airdrieonians - Livingston	0:3
28.09.24	Livingston - Airdrieonians	2:1
Scottish League Cup
14.11.20	Livingston - Airdrieonians	4:1
14.07.18	Airdrieonians - Livingston	1:2
22.07.17	Livingston - Airdrieonians	2:0
Scottish League One
25.03.17	Livingston - Airdrieonians	4:2
18.02.17	Airdrieonians - Livingston	0:4

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