Match Info

Challenge Cup - Final

Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Falkirk Stadium (Falkirk)

Referee: Scott C. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Scotland	BBC Scotland
United-kingdom	BBC Alba, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport


	Queens Park		Livingston

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.3	1.73
	4.6	3.3	1.65
	4.7	3.45	1.77	Watch
				Watch
	4.72	3.35	1.75
	4.7	3.45	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.64 ↑ (3.75)	3.37 ↑ (3.3)	1.73 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Queens Park
19.8%

Draw
27.3%

Livingston
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

27.5%

48.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.4%

26.6%

49.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Queens Park has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Livingston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Queens Park than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Livingston than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Queens Park - Livingston Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferrie C. (C) 2. Mauchin Z. 15. Tizzard W. 12. Jackson B. 33. Montgomery A. 7. Longridge L. 4. Welsh S. 28. Drozd S. 14. MacGregor R. 11. Hurst K. 17. Rudden Z.	28. Prior J. (G) 12. Brandon J. (C) 5. McGowan R. 27. Wilson D. 26. Montano C. 10. Kelly S. 8. Pittman S. 25. Tait M. 23. Muirhead R. 17. May S. 9. Yengi T.
Substitutes
45. Carrick D. 23. Duncan R. 29. Evans R. 37. Hickey R. 46. McGinlay A. 22. Raymond J. 39. Scott T. 20. Turner J. 21. Wills J. (G)	3. Clarke M. 19. Finlayson D. 14. Hamilton J. (G) 40. Lawal S. 6. McAlear R. 21. Nottingham M. 22. Shinnie A. 15. Smith L. 7. Sole L.
Coaches
MacLean S.	Martindale D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
26', 0 - 1, Muirhead R. ⚽, Brandon J. (A),
31', Tizzard W. ↓, Carrick D. ↑,
34', Tait M. 🟨,
41', Longridge L. 🟨,
45', 0 - 2, May S. ⚽, Yengi T. (A),
45+3', Carrick D. ↓, Duncan R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
50', 0 - 3, Yengi T. ⚽, Muirhead R. (A),
56', Drozd S. ↓, Evans R. ↑,
56', Hurst K. ↓, Turner J. ↑,
56', Longridge L. ↓, Hickey R. ↑,
62', Tait M. ↓, McAlear R. ↑,
62', Montano C. ↓, Clarke M. ↑,
75', May S. ↓, Shinnie A. ↑,
75', Muirhead R. ↓, Smith L. ↑,
78', Welsh S. 🟨,
82', 0 - 4, Shinnie A. ⚽, Smith L. (A),
83', Yengi T. ↓, Finlayson D. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 5, Brandon J. ⚽,

Preview

Neutral location - Falkirk Stadium.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Queens Park won 1.

Queens Park has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Livingston is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Livingston could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Livingston is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Livingston to win the game is with odds 1.71.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Queens Park won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:9 (average 1:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Queens Park won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Queens Park FC
Scottish Football Championship
22.03.25	Greenock Morton - Queens Park	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Queens Park - Falkirk	0:4 ✺
11.03.25	Queens Park - Partick Thistle	0:2 ✺
Scottish Cup
08.03.25	Aberdeen - Queens Park	4:1 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
04.03.25	Queens Park - Ayr United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Livingston FC
Scottish Football Championship
25.03.25	Livingston - Falkirk	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Airdrieonians - Livingston	3:3 ✺
Scottish Cup
10.03.25	Livingston - St. Johnstone	0:1 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
05.03.25	Livingston - Raith Rovers	0:0 ✺
28.02.25	Partick Thistle - Livingston	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
04.01.25	Queens Park - Livingston	2:0
02.11.24	Livingston - Queens Park	1:1
09.08.24	Queens Park - Livingston	1:1
Club Friendly
10.07.23	Queens Park - Livingston	0:1
Scottish League One
22.04.17	Livingston - Queens Park	4:0
04.03.17	Queens Park - Livingston	1:1
24.12.16	Livingston - Queens Park	1:2

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