Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 10

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Armando Picchi (Livorno) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Tropiano R. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Italy	20:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Livorno		Grosseto

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.00	3.30	3.10
	1.90	3.20	3.45
	2.22	3.38	3.31
	1.9	3.37	3.8	Watch
	2.11	3.30	3.25
	2.03	3.33	3.64	Watch
	1.97	3.40	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.21)	3.33 ↑ (3.27)	3.41 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Livorno
45.5%

Draw
27.6%

Grosseto
26.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.6%

28.1%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

27.2%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Livorno has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Grosseto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Livorno than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grosseto than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Livorno - Grosseto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Martinez M. (G) 2. Gentile D. 4. Bachini M. 34. Veseli F. 28. Rizza A. 21. Malotti M. 17. Arrigoni T. (C) 32. Haas N. 11. Malagrida L. 7. Aramu M. 9. Gabbiani G.	35. Marcu A. (G) 91. Pitti E. 27. Brenna D. (C) 23. Ampollini F. 47. Mannelli M. 29. Andreoli L. 8. Damiani M. 11. Fiorini P. 70. Fabri F. 5. Sabattini L. 9. Gori L.
Substitutes
5. Bacciardi A. 24. Badoro C. 44. Bonassi L. 90. Calabro L. 22. Ciobanu D. (G) 6. Djidji K. 14. Mancini T. 23. Marinari J. 77. Mawete J. C. 3. Menarini F. 18. Morachioli G. 53. Pittino T. 1. Tani F. (G)	24. Alfani L. 20. Bellini F. 1. Cabella M. (G) 6. Cerretelli F. 32. Ciraudo A. 99. Della Mora T. 25. Fantacci T. 16. Fiorani M. 28. Gaddini M. 21. Gonnelli L. 77. Lorenzelli E. 10. Mastroianni F. 12. Menicucci D. (G) 19. Montini A. 39. Tosi L.
Coaches
Lucarelli C.	Indiani P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
3', 1 - 0, Malagrida L. ⚽, Malotti M. (A),
7', 1 - 1, Sabattini L. ⚽, Fabri F. (A),
12', 2 - 1, Malagrida L. ⚽, Malotti M. (A),
30', Sabattini L. ↓, Gaddini M. ↑,
35', Gabbiani G. 🟨,
42', Bachini M. 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 2, Andreoli L. ⚽, Mannelli M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Arrigoni T. ↓, Bacciardi A. ↑,
46', Gentile D. ↓, Pittino T. ↑,
52', 2 - 3, Pitti E. ⚽,
54', 3 - 3, Malotti M. ⚽, Aramu M. (A),
65', Malagrida L. ↓, Morachioli G. ↑,
66', Fiorini P. ↓, Fantacci T. ↑,
70', Brenna D. 🟨,
72', Veseli F. 🟨,
74', Haas N. 🟨,
75', 3 - 4, Fantacci T. ⚽, Gori L. (A),
77', Aramu M. ↓, Mancini T. ↑,
85', Gabbiani G. ↓, Badoro C. ↑,
85', Fabri F. ↓, Cerretelli F. ↑,
85', Andreoli L. ↓, Fiorani M. ↑,
86', Mannelli M. ↓, Montini A. ↑,
88', 4 - 4, Mancini T. ⚽, Bacciardi A. (A),

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/32 - finals) and 3rd in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/8 - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Livorno won 1.

Both teams look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Livorno holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Livorno has recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:11 (averaging 1.9:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Livorno against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 14:5 goals (averaging 2.8:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Grosseto	11	6	4	1	23:13	10	22
8	Livorno	11	4	4	3	16:16	0	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Livorno 1915
Italian Serie C Group B
11.10.26	Forlì - Livorno	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Livorno - Pescara	0:0 ✺
26.09.26	Livorno - Pianese	3:2 ✺
21.09.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Livorno	1:1 ✺
16.09.26	Livorno - Vado	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTWTW
- FC Grosseto
Italian Serie C Group B
10.10.26	Vis Pesaro - Grosseto	2:3 ✺
03.10.26	Grosseto - Sambenedettese	1:3 ✺
26.09.26	Pineto - Grosseto	0:4 ✺
20.09.26	Grosseto - Perugia	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Grosseto - Campobasso	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
26.01.25	Grosseto - Livorno	0:0
29.09.24	Livorno - Grosseto	5:2
12.05.24	Grosseto - Livorno	3:2
14.01.24	Grosseto - Livorno	1:1
17.09.23	Livorno - Grosseto	1:1
26.02.23	Grosseto - Livorno	1:1
Italian Serie C Group A
16.03.21	Livorno - Grosseto	2:2

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