Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 7

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Armando Picchi (Livorno)

Referee: Gavini S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253


	Livorno		Pianese

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3.20	3.60
	1.75	3.15	4.20	Watch
	1.99	3.25	4.72
	1.76	3.54	4.22	Watch
	1.97	2.80	4.65
	1.85	3.24	3.85	Watch
	1.87	3.30	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.71)	3.21 ↓ (3.35)	4.16 ↓ (4.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Livorno
49.3%

Draw
28.6%

Pianese
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

27.2%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

26.4%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Livorno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Pianese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Livorno than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Livorno, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pianese than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Livorno - Pianese Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Livorno will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Pianese will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Martinez M. (G) 19. Regazzetti S. 34. Veseli F. 4. Bachini M. 54. Falasco N. 32. Haas N. 17. Arrigoni T. (C) 7. Aramu M. 44. Bonassi L. 28. Rizza A. 9. Gabbiani G.	1. Astaldi G. (G) 13. Ercolani L. 56. Masetti L. 16. Chesti F. 37. Di Cosmo L. 21. Tirelli M. 27. Bertini M. 30. Proietto F. (C) 77. Martey C. 11. Bellini L. 10. Ianesi S.
Substitutes
5. Bacciardi A. 90. Calabro L. 22. Ciobanu D. (G) 2. Gentile D. 11. Malagrida L. 21. Malotti M. 14. Mancini T. 23. Marinari J. 77. Mawete J. C. 3. Menarini F. 53. Pittino T. 1. Tani F. (G)	78. Biondini P. (G) 4. Casalino T. 7. Colombo M. 74. Corti T. 29. Fabrizi L. 15. Gorelli M. 19. Morelli G. 14. Negri G. 5. Peli L. 22. Pezzolato M. (G) 23. Pintus N. 20. Vigiani L.
Coaches
Lucarelli C.	Zanchetta A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Gabbiani G. ⚽, Aramu M. (A),
19', Bertini M. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 0, Gabbiani G. ⚽, Haas N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Masetti L. ↓, Pintus N. ↑,
46', Martey C. ↓, Negri G. ↑,
58', 2 - 1, Ianesi S. ⚽,
65', Gabbiani G. 🟨,
67', Haas N. ↓, Bacciardi A. ↑,
72', Aramu M. ↓, Malagrida L. ↑,
72', Gabbiani G. ↓, Mancini T. ↑,
72', Di Cosmo L. ↓, Colombo M. ↑,
73', Tirelli M. ↓, Morelli G. ↑,
77', Bacciardi A. 🟨,
84', Rizza A. ↓, Pittino T. ↑,
84', Bonassi L. ↓, Calabro L. ↑,
86', Bertini M. ↓, Fabrizi L. ↑,
87', 3 - 1, Bacciardi A. ⚽, Malagrida L. (A),
90+2', Veseli F. 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 2, Ianesi S. ⚽,

Preview

A clear contrast in standings as an upper-tier team meets a relegation-threatened side (ranked 5th in the Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 18th in the Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Livorno won 0.

Livorno is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Pianese has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Livorno carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Livorno has recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:14 (averaging 1:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Livorno against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:5 goals (averaging 1.3:1.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Livorno	8	4	2	2	10:9	1	14
18	Pianese	8	1	3	4	6:10	-4	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Livorno 1915
Italian Serie C Group B
21.09.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Livorno	1:1 ✺
16.09.26	Livorno - Vado	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Spezia - Livorno	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Livorno - Atalanta U23	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
03.09.26	Novara - Livorno	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWLWW
- US Pianese ASD
Italian Serie C Group B
21.09.26	Pianese - Sambenedettese	1:1 ✺
16.09.26	Sassari Torres - Pianese	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Pianese - Grosseto	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Pianese	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	Pianese - Vado	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
15.02.26	Livorno - Pianese	1:2
03.10.25	Pianese - Livorno	2:1
Italian Serie D - Group E
10.03.24	Livorno - Pianese	1:1
15.11.23	Pianese - Livorno	1:1
14.05.23	Pianese - Livorno	3:1
02.04.23	Livorno - Pianese	2:2
20.11.22	Pianese - Livorno	3:0

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