Match Info

Cymru South - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Llantwit Major		Pontardawe Town

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.45	2.22
	2.74	3.57	2.35	Watch
	2.45	3.50	2.20
	2.63	3.78	2.36
	2.60	3.60	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.58)	3.58 ↑ (3.54)	2.28 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llantwit Major
34.9%

Draw
25.3%

Pontardawe Town
39.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.9%

25.4%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

24.5%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Llantwit Major have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Pontardawe Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llantwit Major than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontardawe Town than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Llantwit Major - Pontardawe Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 1 - 0, Stokes T. M. ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Meacock J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 15th and 11th).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Pontardawe could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Both teams have recently been through a demanding run of away matches.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Llantwit Major has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 6:4 (averaging 2:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Llantwit Major against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 4:1 goals (averaging 2:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Llantwit Major	10	3	2	5	10:21	-11	11
13	Pontardawe	9	3	1	5	15:17	-2	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llantwit Major FC
Welsh Cymru South
06.10.26	Pontypridd United - Llantwit Major	4:1 ✺
02.10.26	Carmarthen Town - Llantwit Major	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Llantwit Major - Llanelli	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Treowen Stars - Llantwit Major	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Aberystwyth Town - Llantwit Major	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 LWWTL
- Pontardawe Town
Welsh Cymru South
03.10.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Pontardawe Town	2:3 ✺
26.09.26	Pontardawe Town - Treowen Stars	6:1 ✺
11.09.26	Pure Swansea - Pontardawe Town	4:0 ✺
28.08.26	Aberystwyth Town - Pontardawe Town	1:0 ✺
21.08.26	Afan Lido - Pontardawe Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
16.12.23	Pontardawe Town - Llantwit Major	3:2
28.01.23	Llantwit Major - Pontardawe Town	4:1

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