Match Info

Cymru South - Round 10

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Carmarthen Town		Llantwit Major

	1	X	2
	1.52	4.15	4.3
	1.57	4.35	4.39
	1.59	4.53	4.57
	1.55	4.3	4.3
	1.65	4.29	4.39
	1.54	4.2	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.41)	4.3 ↓ (4.82)	4.38 ↓ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carmarthen Town
58%

Draw
21.2%

Llantwit Major
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

19.2%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.8%

17.8%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carmarthen Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carmarthen Town's form might have worsened.

Llantwit Major has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Llantwit Major's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Llantwit Major than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Carmarthen Town - Llantwit Major Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Reed L. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Roscrow A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', 1 - 2, Tweedy T. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the top teams against an opponent battling near the bottom (ranked 4th and 15th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carmarthen Town won 1.

Carmarthen Town has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Llantwit Major is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Bookmakers give the edge to Carmarthen Town for this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Carmarthen Town has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:9 (averaging 1:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Carmarthen Town against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 5:7 goals (averaging 1:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Carmarthen Town	9	4	2	3	20:19	1	14
15	Llantwit Major	8	2	1	5	7:20	-13	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
25.09.26	Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Carmarthen Town - Ynyshir Albions	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Carmarthen Town - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:3 ✺
28.08.26	Llanelli - Carmarthen Town	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Carmarthen Town - Treowen Stars	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WTLTL
- Llantwit Major FC
Welsh Cymru South
26.09.26	Llantwit Major - Llanelli	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Treowen Stars - Llantwit Major	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Aberystwyth Town - Llantwit Major	5:1 ✺
15.08.26	Llantwit Major - Baglan Dragons	0:1 ✺
07.08.26	Afan Lido - Llantwit Major	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
30.01.26	Carmarthen Town - Llantwit Major	1:1
16.08.25	Llantwit Major - Carmarthen Town	0:0
11.01.25	Llantwit Major - Carmarthen Town	0:2
25.10.24	Carmarthen Town - Llantwit Major	0:1
20.04.24	Carmarthen Town - Llantwit Major	0:3
29.07.23	Llantwit Major - Carmarthen Town	1:2
25.02.23	Llantwit Major - Carmarthen Town	0:0

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