Match Info

Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse (Choluteca) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Honduras	17:15	Deportes TV
North Central America	—	Centro America TV


	Lobos UPNFM		Olimpia Tegucigalpa

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.70	3.30	1.82
	4.00	3.35	1.68
	3.82	3.22	1.88
	3.86	3.4	1.94	Watch
	3.70	3.10	1.86
	3.78	3.32	1.84
	3.90	3.35	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↓ (4.07)	3.29 ↓ (3.4)	1.84 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lobos UPNFM
23.6%

Draw
27.4%

Olimpia Tegucigalpa
49%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

21.9%

26.2%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

25.9%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lobos UPNFM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Olimpia Tegucigalpa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lobos UPNFM than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpia Tegucigalpa than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Lobos UPNFM - Olimpia Tegucigalpa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Olimpia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Guity A. (G) 16. Carter D. 24. Elvir O. 4. Garcia J. 10. Hinestroza Y. 7. Hurtado L. 32. Juan M. 6. Ponce J. 3. Rodas Andrino G. J. (C) 25. Santos M. 2. Suazo D.	22. Rodriguez O. (G) 19. Arboleda Y. (C) 12. Canales C. 45. Cortes B. 18. Garcia R. 15. Guity K. 4. Lobo E. 20. Maldonado A. 39. Ortiz A. 25. Paguada D. 21. Pena K.
Substitutes
23. Castrillo J. 11. Elvir S. 15. Glavocic J. 55. Lagos D. (G) 20. Lopez E. 77. Mejia C. 8. Nunez J. 13. Rodriguez M. 9. Villafranca J. 5. Zuniga A.	73. Arzu D. 3. Bennett C. 62. David Y. 5. Enriquez I. 26. Flores D. 6. Garcia F. 2. Hernandez E. 14. Jean-Baptiste J. 38. Mejia R. (G) 1. Menjivar E. (G) 68. Rodriguez J. 69. Romero E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Arboleda Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Guity K. ↓, Bennett C. ↑,
46', Hurtado L. ↓, Elvir S. ↑,
46', Juan M. ↓, Mejia C. ↑,
52', Lobo E. 🟨,
76', Pena K. ↓, Flores D. ↑,
76', Paguada D. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
78', Hinestroza Y. ↓, Villafranca J. ↑,
85', Arboleda Y. ↓, Enriquez I. ↑,
85', 🟨,
90+2', Cortes B. ↓, Romero E. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 8th and 2nd in the Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Playoffs - Semi - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lobos UPNFM won 0.

Both teams look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

Olimpia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Olimpia for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Lobos UPNFM has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 15 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:36 (averaging 0.6:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lobos UPNFM against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with 6:14 goals (averaging 0.7:1.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Olimpia	11	8	2	1	23:8	15	26
8	UPNFM	11	3	3	5	11:13	-2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Lobos UPNFM - the odds 4.07 are the expected chance of winning is 21.91%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Olimpia Tegucigalpa - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 51.85%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lobos UPNFM
Honduras Liga Nacional
17.10.26	Atlético Independiente - Lobos UPNFM	0:4 ✺
10.10.26	Lobos UPNFM - CD Marathón	0:0 ✺
18.09.26	Platense - Lobos UPNFM	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Lobos UPNFM - Choloma	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Real España - Lobos UPNFM	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WTWWL
- CD Olimpia Tegucigalpa
CONCACAF Central American Cup
21.10.26	Cartagines - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	1:0 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
15.10.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Real España	2:1 ✺
10.10.26	Génesis PN - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Atlético Independiente	4:0 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
17.09.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Luis Ángel Firpo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
02.08.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Lobos UPNFM	2:0
02.04.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Lobos UPNFM	0:0
07.02.26	Lobos UPNFM - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	0:1
05.10.25	Lobos UPNFM - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	1:2
26.07.25	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Lobos UPNFM	2:0
05.03.25	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Lobos UPNFM	2:0
18.01.25	Lobos UPNFM - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	0:1

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