Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Relegation - Final

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Soevereinstadion (Lommel)

Referee: De Cremer W. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Sporza, Sporza


	Lommel		Dender EH

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	2.88	Watch
	2.2	3.5	3.1
	2.2	3.5	3.1	Watch
	2.27	3.65	3.21
	2.27	3.46	3.11	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3
	2.21	3.64	3.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.23)	3.49 ↑ (3.41)	3.07 ↓ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lommel
42.6%

Draw
26.9%

Dender EH
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

27.5%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

26.3%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lommel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

The chances for Dender EH have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lommel than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dender EH than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	0%	22.2%

Lommel - Dender EH Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Lommel will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Dender EH will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lommel: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Pieklak M. (G) 14. Tolinsson J. 13. Banguera Riascos J. A. 5. Wouters D. 79. De Grand S. 9. van Duiven J. 6. Pelupessy J. 18. Lopez L. 10. Reyners T. 15. Schoofs L. (C) 30. Seuntjens R.	93. Gallon G. (G) 5. Marijnissen L. 44. De Fougerolles L. 7. Goncalves B. 70. Sambu M. 24. Viltard M. 18. Rodes N. (C) 67. Moutha-Sebtaoui N. 23. Acquah D. 90. Berte M. 16. Kvet R.
Substitutes
3. Eyoma T. 1. Ivezic N. (G) 34. Oware H. 73. Reumers A. 8. Rommens N. 98. Salah M. 93. Vancsa Z. 65. Vandecraen E. 11. van Duiven R.	21. Cools K. 45. Daali A. 6. De Kerf B. 15. Koton K. 17. Mbamba N. 77. Nsimba B. 11. Oratmangoen R. 9. Toshevski D. 34. Verrips M. (G)
Coaches
Johnson L.	Ferrera Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Lopez L. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Acquah D. ⚽, Berte M. (A),
40', De Fougerolles L. 🟨,
45', Berte M. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
53', van Duiven J. ↓, Vancsa Z. ↑,
54', Lopez L. ↓, Salah M. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Seuntjens R. ⚽,
61', Kvet R. ↓, Oratmangoen R. ↑,
61', Acquah D. ↓, Mbamba N. ↑,
61', Moutha-Sebtaoui N. ↓, Daali A. ↑,
62', De Fougerolles L. ↓, De Kerf B. ↑,
76', Marijnissen L. ↓, Nsimba B. ↑,
81', Tolinsson J. ↓, Eyoma T. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Berte M. ⚽, Daali A. (A),
86', 2 - 2, Seuntjens R. ⚽, Salah M. (A),
90+5', Sambu M. 🟨,
90+6', 3 - 2, Vancsa Z. ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lommel won 1.

Lommel is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Dender EH's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lommel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lommel will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Dender EH: Cools K. (Inactive) Ferraro F. (Inactive) Fredrick B. (Knee Injury) Gallon G. (Inactive) Hrncar D. (Inactive) Jahanbakhsh A. (Injury) Mbamba N. (Inactive)

We predict that Lommel will win today's game, with odds of 2.18.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Lommel won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lommel won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Lommel SK	8	3	2	3	9:9	0	11

Last Results with these Odds

Lommel - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.05%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lommel SK
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
09.05.26	Beerschot Wilrijk - Lommel	1:3 ✺
02.05.26	Lommel - Beerschot Wilrijk	3:1 ✺
27.04.26	RFC Liège - Lommel	1:2 ✺
23.04.26	Lommel - RFC Liège	3:0 ✺
Belgian Challenger Pro League
17.04.26	Beerschot Wilrijk - Lommel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWWWL
- FCV Dender EH
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
09.05.26	Zulte Waregem - Dender EH	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Dender EH - RAAL La Louvière	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Cercle Brugge - Dender EH	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Dender EH - Cercle Brugge	1:4 ✺
12.04.26	Dender EH - Zulte Waregem	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Challenger Pro League
03.02.24	Lommel - Dender EH	2:2
16.09.23	Dender EH - Lommel	3:1
06.05.23	Dender EH - Lommel	2:1
03.03.23	Lommel - Dender EH	1:0
28.01.23	Lommel - Dender EH	1:1
12.08.22	Dender EH - Lommel	1:4
Belgian National Division 1
16.12.17	Dender EH - Lommel	0:2

Lommel - Dender EH: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide