Match Info

Serie B - Round 28

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Vitorino Goncalves Dias (VGD) (Londrina)

Referee: Correia D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+


	Londrina		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	1.30	4.50	10.00	Watch
	1.33	4.80	8.00
	1.30	5.00	9.50	Watch
	1.37	4.98	9.20
	1.32	5.12	8.84	Watch
	1.33	4.95	9.60
	1.34	4.51	9.55	Watch
	1.32	4.90	8.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↑ (1.32)	4.85 ↓ (5)	9.14 ↑ (9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Londrina
70.5%

Draw
19.3%

Ponte Preta
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.9%

18.7%

10.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

11.4%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Londrina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (-27.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Londrina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponte Preta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Londrina - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Londrina will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Ponte Preta will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Londrina (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Londrina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 75. Kaue Leonardo 44. Caio Rodrigues 4. Wallace (C) 34. Heron 5. Tarik 17. Joao Coni 77. Guilherme Dantas 20. Joao Vitor 28. Herbert 99. Igor Bahia	30. Vinicius Ferrari (G) 44. Gustavo Almeida 23. Palacios S. 3. Lucas Cunha 6. Jonathan 20. Murilo 8. Andre Lima 14. Danilo Barcelos (C) 18. David da Hora 21. Brandao 17. Miguel Morais
Substitutes
22. Artur 15. Gabriel Lacerda 9. Gilberto 27. Guilherme Cachoeira 32. Joao Tavares 33. Kevyn 1. Luan Ribeiro (G) 8. Lucas Marques 2. Nino Paraiba 96. Thalis 7. Vitinho Mota 23. Willian Pottker	19. Denis 4. Diego M. L. 13. Diego Porfirio 32. Di Mauro F. 7. Ferreira E. 15. Gabriel Caran 1. Guilherme Viana (G) 35. Gustavo Telles 2. Julio 5. Rodrigo Souza 16. Souza M. 9. Thevyn
Coaches
Rogerio Micale	Gilson Kleina

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
22', Andre Lima 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Herbert ⚽, Heron (A),
30', Kaue Leonardo 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Guilherme Dantas ⚽, Herbert (A),
45', 3 - 0, Igor Bahia ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Kaue Leonardo ↓, Nino Paraiba ↑,
55', Miguel Morais ↓, Julio ↑,
55', Murilo ↓, Ferreira E. ↑,
59', 4 - 0, Herbert ⚽,
64', Caio Rodrigues 🟨,
65', Tarik ↓, Lucas Marques ↑,
65', Joao Coni ↓, Guilherme Cachoeira ↑,
66', Heron ↓, Artur ↑,
66', Danilo Barcelos ↓, Rodrigo Souza ↑,
66', David da Hora ↓, Denis ↑,
75', Herbert ↓, Vitinho Mota ↑,
81', 5 - 0, Vitinho Mota ⚽, Guilherme Cachoeira (A),
85', 6 - 0, Joao Vitor ⚽,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Londrina won 1.

In recent matches, Londrina has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ponte Preta has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Londrina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Londrina is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Londrina: Geovane Meurer (Injury)

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Elvis (Knee Injury) Jonathan Cafu (Inactive) Rodrigo Souza (Inactive)

There are questionable in Londrina: Lucas Marques (Inactive) Paulinho Moccelin (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Diego Porfirio (Injury) Kevyson (Knee Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Londrina won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Londrina won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40:47	-7	28
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie B
10.09.26	São Bernardo - Londrina	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Londrina - Operário Ferroviario	1:2 ✺
01.09.26	Londrina - Juventude	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Ceará - Londrina	2:1 ✺
18.08.26	Londrina - Atlético Goianiense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLTLT
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
10.09.26	Sport Recife - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	0:2 ✺
30.08.26	América Mineiro - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Ponte Preta - Avaí	0:2 ✺
19.08.26	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
18.05.26	Ponte Preta - Londrina	1:4
Brazilian Serie C
25.10.25	Ponte Preta - Londrina	2:0
18.10.25	Londrina - Ponte Preta	0:0
30.08.25	Ponte Preta - Londrina	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
25.08.23	Ponte Preta - Londrina	1:0
14.05.23	Londrina - Ponte Preta	3:0
23.09.22	Londrina - Ponte Preta	0:2

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