Match Info

Division 1 - Round 30

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Bishopsgate (Longford)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	LOI TV


	Longford Town		Kerry

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.20	2.37
	2.55	3.15	2.45
	2.85	3.61	2.40
	2.4	3.53	2.59	Watch
	2.60	3.65	2.45
	2.66	3.38	2.28
	2.65	3.25	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.27)	3.4 ↓ (3.49)	2.41 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Longford Town
35.1%

Draw
26.9%

Kerry
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

26.2%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

25.2%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Longford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Longford Town's form might have worsened.

Kerry has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Longford Town than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Longford Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kerry than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kerry, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Longford Town - Kerry Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moore K. (G) 6. Adenekan S. 16. Bailey J. 10. Doran A. 21. Hough J. 5. McCarthy T. 20. O'Brien A. (C) 12. Omorehiomwan C. 23. Paraschiv A. 9. Ugbesia S. 14. Williams D.	1. Connor M. (G) 18. Aladesanusi S. 41. Bargary C. 24. Borden V. 28. Brookwell N. 14. Hakkinen J. 29. Lee E. 7. McGrath S. (C) 10. Murphy C. 3. O'Connell S. 23. Perez R.
Substitutes
18. Brady S. 27. Brunton K. 19. Campbell F. 7. George D. 11. Harris M. 8. Manuel P. 4. McKenna D. 28. Moore S. 25. Woodcock L.	17. Brosnan C. 51. Campbell C. 44. Halwax H. (G) 35. Healy A. 38. Healy C. 34. Keane R. 37. McCormack C. 21. Palmer L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', O'Brien A. 🟨,
25', Adenekan S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Bailey J. 🟨,
65', Williams D. ↓, Manuel P. ↑,
76', 0 - 1, Murphy C. ⚽,
78', McGrath S. ↓, Keane R. ↑,
79', Perez R. ↓, Healy A. ↑,
79', Healy A. 🟨,
85', Bargary C. ↓, Brosnan C. ↑,
86', Ugbesia S. ↓, Campbell F. ↑,
88', Adenekan S. ↓, Harris M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Longford won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Longford may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Longford won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:20. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Longford won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 2.1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Longford	34	13	9	12	47:45	2	48
6	Kerry	34	13	9	12	42:40	2	48

Last Results with these Odds

Kerry - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 33.41%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Longford Town
Irish Division 1
28.08.26	Cobh Ramblers - Longford Town	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Longford Town - Bray Wanderers	4:2 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
16.08.26	Bohemians Dublin - Longford Town	4:0 ✺
Irish Division 1
07.08.26	Athlone Town - Longford Town	2:1 ✺
03.08.26	Longford Town - Finn Harps	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWLLW
- Kerry FC Ireland
Irish Division 1
28.08.26	Kerry - Treaty United	3:1 ✺
21.08.26	Kerry - University College Dublin	1:1 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
15.08.26	Sligo Rovers - Kerry	4:0 ✺
Irish Division 1
07.08.26	Cork City - Kerry	3:1 ✺
03.08.26	Kerry - Cobh Ramblers	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Irish Division 1
26.06.26	Kerry - Longford Town	2:1
25.04.26	Longford Town - Kerry	1:0
27.02.26	Kerry - Longford Town	1:1
22.08.25	Kerry - Longford Town	1:0
12.07.25	Longford Town - Kerry	3:1
30.05.25	Kerry - Longford Town	2:0
15.03.25	Longford Town - Kerry	3:2

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