Match Info

Serie C - Play Out - Final

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Giuseppe Sivori (Sestri Levante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Sestri Levante		Lucchese

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	2.8
	2.43	3.1	2.9
	2.54	3.1	2.86
	2.52	3.12	2.87	Watch
	2.42	3.1	2.67
	2.43	3.1	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (3.25)	3.09 ↓ (3.1)	2.83 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sestri Levante
37.7%

Draw
29.8%

Lucchese
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

29.3%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.5%

28.8%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sestri Levante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sestri Levante's performance.

Lucchese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lucchese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sestri Levante than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sestri Levante that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucchese than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lucchese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sestri Levante - Lucchese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Fusco E. (G) 95. Primasso A. 5. Valentini N. 4. Pane M. 27. Podda L. 10. Clemenza L. 18. Rosetti M. 6. Brunet J. 25. Nunziatini F. 77. Piu A. 9. Parravicini N.	59. Melgrati R. (G) 27. Gucher R. 5. Benedetti S. 3. Rizzo N. 30. Gemignani A. 8. Tumbarello G. 96. Galli G. 21. Visconti E. 29. Antoni E. 70. Saporiti E. 9. Magnaghi S.
Substitutes
11. Cominetti M. 29. Di Giorgio R. 7. Durmush M. 58. Fedele M. 3. Furno C. 28. Giorno F. 17. Goglino P. A. 99. Guadagno J. (G) 23. Nenci O. 14. Oneto E. 19. Pavanello A. 70. Piazza D. 86. Raggio G. S. 12. Sias F. (G)	12. Allegrucci L. (G) 20. Badje I. 23. Ballarini M. 26. Cartano R. 1. Coletta J. (G) 2. da Silva J. 19. Fedato F. 6. Gasbarro A. 80. Gheza F. 71. Moschella M. 15. Salomaa H. 24. Welbeck N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Brunet J. ⚽,
36', 2 - 0, Nunziatini F. ⚽,
43', Visconti E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Magnaghi S. ↓, Fedato F. ↑,
70', Clemenza L. ↓, Oneto E. ↑,
72', Tumbarello G. ↓, Ballarini M. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Saporiti E. ⚽,
90+1', Parravicini N. ↓, Cominetti M. ↑,
90+4', Pane M. 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lucchese will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sestri Levante won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sestri Levante won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USD Sestri Levante 1919
Italian Serie C Group B
27.04.25	Carpi - Sestri Levante	0:2 ✺
23.04.25	Sestri Levante - Ascoli	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Perugia - Sestri Levante	2:2 ✺
05.04.25	Sestri Levante - Milan Futuro	1:2 ✺
30.03.25	Rimini - Sestri Levante	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTTLL
- AS Lucchese Libertas 1905
Italian Serie C Group B
27.04.25	Lucchese - Sassari Torres	3:2 ✺
23.04.25	Arezzo - Lucchese	4:1 ✺
13.04.25	Lucchese - Vis Pesaro	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Pontedera - Lucchese	4:1 ✺
30.03.25	Lucchese - Ternana	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
23.02.25	Sestri Levante - Lucchese	1:1
11.10.24	Lucchese - Sestri Levante	0:0
14.01.24	Lucchese - Sestri Levante	1:3
09.09.23	Sestri Levante - Lucchese	0:1

Sestri Levante - Lucchese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide