Match Info

Serie C - Play Out - Final

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Porta Elisa (Lucca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253


	Lucchese		Sestri Levante

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.5	4.2
	1.69	3.65	4.7
	1.78	3.6	4.55
	1.69	3.61	5.07	Watch
	1.76	3.72	4.13	Watch
	1.69	3.65	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.81)	3.62 ↑ (3.48)	4.56 ↑ (4.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lucchese
54.1%

Draw
25.6%

Sestri Levante
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

26.5%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

26.9%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucchese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Sestri Levante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lucchese than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sestri Levante than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Lucchese - Sestri Levante Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
59. Melgrati R. (G) 29. Antoni E. 5. Benedetti S. 30. Gemignani A. 27. Gucher R. 9. Magnaghi S. 3. Rizzo N. 70. Saporiti E. 8. Tumbarello G. 21. Visconti E.	22. Fusco E. (G) 6. Brunet J. 10. Clemenza L. 7. Durmush M. 43. Montebugnoli M. 25. Nunziatini F. 4. Pane M. 9. Parravicini N. 27. Podda L. 18. Rosetti M. 5. Valentini N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Clemenza L. ↓, Primasso A. ↑,
62', Gemignani A. ↓, Fedato F. ↑,
68', Galli G. ↓, Welbeck N. ↑,
74', Durmush M. ↓, Cominetti M. ↑,
78', Tumbarello G. 🟨,
81', 🟨,
82', 🟨,
83', Antoni E. 🟨,
83', Magnaghi S. ↓, Badje I. ↑,
88', 1 - 0, Badje I. ⚽,
90', 🟨,
90+2', Brunet J. ↓, Di Giorgio R. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-2. 2nd leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Lucchese is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lucchese won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lucchese won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Sestri Levante - the odds 4.11 are the expected chance of winning is 22.48%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Lucchese Libertas 1905
Italian Serie C Group A
10.05.25	Sestri Levante - Lucchese	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
27.04.25	Lucchese - Sassari Torres	3:2 ✺
23.04.25	Arezzo - Lucchese	4:1 ✺
13.04.25	Lucchese - Vis Pesaro	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Pontedera - Lucchese	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLWL
- USD Sestri Levante 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
10.05.25	Sestri Levante - Lucchese	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
27.04.25	Carpi - Sestri Levante	0:2 ✺
23.04.25	Sestri Levante - Ascoli	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Perugia - Sestri Levante	2:2 ✺
05.04.25	Sestri Levante - Milan Futuro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
10.05.25	Sestri Levante - Lucchese	2:1
Italian Serie C Group B
23.02.25	Sestri Levante - Lucchese	1:1
11.10.24	Lucchese - Sestri Levante	0:0
14.01.24	Lucchese - Sestri Levante	1:3
09.09.23	Sestri Levante - Lucchese	0:1

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