Match Info

Super League - Championship Group - Round 34

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: Cibelli L. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	SuperSport 4
Switzerland	Blue Sport 9, Blue Sport 9, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	Sport 2
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Thun		Lugano

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.5	3.3	Watch
	1.9	3.8	3.5
	1.95	3.75	3.3
	2	4.02	3.6
	1.93	4	3.52	Watch
	1.95	3.5	3.4
	1.98	3.65	3.44	Watch
	1.82	3.95	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.8)	3.77 ↑ (3.7)	3.5 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thun
48.5%

Draw
24.8%

Lugano
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

24.7%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

25.3%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thun than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Thun - Lugano Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Thun will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Lugano will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugano (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Steffen N. (G) 19. Bamert J. 4. Montolio G. 23. Burki M. (C) 27. Heule M. 6. Bertone L. 14. Kait M. 47. Fehr F. 7. Imeri K. 18. Ibayi C. 74. Rastoder E.	16. von Ballmoos D. (G) 6. Papadopoulos A. 17. Mai L. 3. Delcroix H. 46. Zanotti M. 25. Bislimi U. 8. Grgic A. 21. Cimignani Y. 11. Steffen R. (C) 9. Koutsias G. 27. Dos Santos D.
Substitutes
37. Dahler L. 9. Dursun F. 96. Labeau B. 78. Matoshi V. 77. Meichtry F. 70. Reichmuth N. 16. Roth J. 20. Rupp N. 25. Spycher T. (G)	7. Alioski E. 91. Behrens K. 29. Belhadj M. 10. Bottani M. 44. Joao Carbone 14. Kendouci A. 18. Mahou H. 24. Pihlstrom E. 1. Saipi A. (G)
Coaches
Lustrinelli M.	Croci-Torti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Montolio G. ↓, Dahler L. ↑,
33', Heule M. 🟨,
36', Papadopoulos A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dos Santos D. ↓, Belhadj M. ↑,
46', Fehr F. 🟨,
53', Zanotti M. 🟨,
57', Koutsias G. ↓, Behrens K. ↑,
62', Fehr F. ↓, Matoshi V. ↑,
62', Imeri K. ↓, Meichtry F. ↑,
74', Ibayi C. ↓, Labeau B. ↑,
74', Kait M. ↓, Dursun F. ↑,
77', Cimignani Y. ↓, Alioski E. ↑,
81', Belhadj M. 🟨,
88', Steffen R. ↓, Bottani M. ↑,
88', Bislimi U. ↓, Pihlstrom E. ↑,
90+5', Burki M. 🟨,
90+7', 0 - 1, Alioski E. (Penalty Awarded),
90+10', Alioski E. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thun won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lugano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Thun could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Thun: Balaruban A. (Inactive) Reichmuth N. (Injury) Ziswiler N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lugano: Cassano C. (Knee Injury) Kelvin D. (Yellow Cards) von Ballmoos D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Thun: Heule M. (Injury) Imeri K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lugano: Mai L. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Thun won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:33. (average 1.6:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Thun won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:18. (average 1.7:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lugano	10	9	1	0	31:7	24	28
9	Thun	10	3	1	6	17:27	-10	10

Last Results with these Odds

Thun - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 50.9%, but this team recently wins 85% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Thun
Swiss Super League
18.04.26	Thun - Basel	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	Lugano - Thun	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Zürich - Thun	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Thun - Grasshoppers	5:1 ✺
08.03.26	Young Boys - Thun	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLLWW
- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
11.04.26	Zürich - Lugano	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Lugano - Thun	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.03.26	Lugano - Taverne	1:3 ✺
Swiss Super League
22.03.26	Young Boys - Lugano	1:1 ✺
17.03.26	St. Gallen - Lugano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Super League
04.04.26	Lugano - Thun	1:0
22.11.25	Thun - Lugano	0:1
27.07.25	Lugano - Thun	1:2
Club Friendly
11.07.25	Lugano - Thun	2:4
Swiss Cup
10.02.22	Thun - Lugano	3:4
Swiss Super League
15.07.20	Lugano - Thun	1:1
09.02.20	Thun - Lugano	3:2

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