Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification - Final

Date: 22 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: Krogh M. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, RSI La 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+


	Lugano		Beşiktaş

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.7	2	Watch
	3.5	3.5	2.05
	3.4	3.5	2.1
	3.52	3.57	2.1
	3.37	3.68	2.01	Watch
	3.3	3.5	1.91
	3.56	3.72	2.06	Watch
	3.4	3.5	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↑ (2.9)	3.58 ↑ (3.5)	2.04 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
27.4%

Draw
26.3%

Beşiktaş
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

26.9%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

26.7%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Beşiktaş has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Beşiktaş's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Beşiktaş than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Beşiktaş, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.2%	9.1%	75.8%

Lugano - Beşiktaş Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Lugano will win (votes: 5 - 15.6%). Beşiktaş will win (votes: 25 - 78.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Beşiktaş: 63.8% – 92.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saipi A. (G) 46. Zanotti M. 6. Papadopoulos A. 22. El Wafi A. 23. Valenzuela M. 25. Bislimi U. 20. Doumbia O. (C) 29. Belhadj M. 11. Steffen R. 9. Vladi S. 31. Aliseda I.	34. Gunok M. (C) 2. Svensson J. 3. Gabriel Paulista 53. Topcu E. 26. Masuaku A. 28. Al Musrati 73. Ndour C. 7. Rashica M. 83. Fernandes G. 27. Rafa Silva 17. Immobile C.
Substitutes
10. Bottani M. 2. Brault-Guillard Z. 21. Cimignani Y. 27. Dos Santos D. 8. Grgic A. 7. Macek R. 18. Mahou H. 17. Mai L. 26. Marques M. 99. Mina D. (G) 58. Osigwe S. (G) 93. Przybylko K.	4. Bulut O. 30. Destanoglu E. (G) 91. Hekimoglu M. 77. Keles C. 9. Kilicsoy S. 23. Muci E. 71. Onana J. 5. Sanuc T. 79. Terzi E. 21. Tiknaz D. E. 8. Ucan S. 20. Uysal N.
Coaches
Croci-Torti M.	van Bronckhorst G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Fernandes G. ⚽, Gabriel Paulista (A),
34', 1 - 1, Bislimi U. ⚽, Zanotti M. (A),
45+2', Ndour C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
47', Doumbia O. 🟨,
52', 1 - 2, Fernandes G. ⚽, Rafa Silva (A),
55', 1 - 3, Al Musrati ⚽, Masuaku A. (A),
57', 2 - 3, Steffen R. ⚽, Aliseda I. (A),
58', Ndour C. ↓, Onana J. ↑,
62', Vladi S. ↓, Przybylko K. ↑,
62', Doumbia O. ↓, Grgic A. ↑,
64', 3 - 3, Gabriel Paulista (Own goal),
71', Immobile C. ↓, Hekimoglu M. ↑,
71', Rashica M. ↓, Muci E. ↑,
71', Aliseda I. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
77', Valenzuela M. 🟨,
84', Onana J. 🟨,
85', Bislimi U. ↓, Bottani M. ↑,
85', Belhadj M. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stockhorn Arena.

Recent matches Lugano is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Beşiktaş is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Lugano could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Beşiktaş will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Lugano won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugano won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
Swiss Cup
18.08.24	Brühl - Lugano	1:7 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.08.24	Lugano - Partizan	2:2 ET ✺
Swiss Super League
11.08.24	Lugano - Luzern	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
08.08.24	Partizan - Lugano	0:1 ✺
Swiss Super League
03.08.24	Lugano - Servette	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLLWW
- Beşiktaş
Turkish Super League
18.08.24	Beşiktaş - Antalyaspor	4:2 ✺
11.08.24	Samsunspor - Beşiktaş	0:2 ✺
Turkish Super Cup
03.08.24	Galatasaray - Beşiktaş	0:5 ✺
Club Friendly
20.07.24	Beşiktaş - Grazer AK	5:1 ✺
17.07.24	Beşiktaş - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
14.12.23	Lugano - Beşiktaş	0:2
05.10.23	Beşiktaş - Lugano	2:3

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