Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 7 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovenia	SportKlub 2, Sport TV1
Switzerland	RSI La 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	Lugano		Celje

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.5	5	Watch
	1.52	4.2	5
	1.65	3.55	4.95	Watch
	1.68	3.74	4.73
	1.63	3.65	5.52	Watch
	1.65	3.93	5.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.51)	3.76 ↓ (4.04)	5.13 ↓ (7.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
57.1%

Draw
24.7%

Celje
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.5%

23.7%

12.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

20.9%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugano's form might have worsened.

Celje has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Celje's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celje than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.2%	9.5%	14.3%

Lugano - Celje Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Lugano will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). Celje will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lugano: 58% – 94.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Lugano (2.20) (votes: 7 - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

TQ, OT - Celje (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lugano will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugano (votes: 12 - 80%). Celje (votes: 3 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saipi A. (G) 6. Papadopoulos A. 17. Mai L. 22. El Wafi A. 21. Cimignani Y. 29. Belhadj M. 20. Doumbia O. 25. Bislimi U. 7. Alioski E. 10. Bottani M. (C) 91. Behrens K.	1. Leban Z. (G) 2. Juanjo Nieto 23. Karnicnik Z. (C) 44. Bejger L. 6. Tutyskinas A. 19. Zabukovnik M. 8. Kvesic M. 11. Avdyli M. 10. Sturm D. 20. Iosifov N. 9. Kovacevic F.
Substitutes
27. Dos Santos D. 97. Duville-Parsemain A. 8. Grgic A. 5. Hajdari A. 4. Kelvin D. 9. Koutsias G. 18. Mahou H. 49. Maslarov I. 99. Mina D. (G) 15. Pseftis F. (G) 46. Zanotti M.	42. Boben M. 14. Chidi A. 4. Hrka D. 7. Jevsenak F. 12. Kolar L. (G) 16. Vidovic I. 5. Vodeb G. 3. Vuklisevic D. 25. Zorko T. (G)
Coaches
Croci-Torti M.	Riera A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
35', 0 - 1, Sturm D. ⚽,
42', Belhadj M. 🟨,
44', 0 - 2, Kovacevic F. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Belhadj M. ↓, Koutsias G. ↑,
46', Bislimi U. ↓, Grgic A. ↑,
59', 0 - 3, Zabukovnik M. ⚽, Juanjo Nieto (A),
61', Bottani M. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,
61', El Wafi A. ↓, Zanotti M. ↑,
67', Zanotti M. ↓, Hajdari A. ↑,
78', Bejger L. ↓, Boben M. ↑,
82', Mai L. 🟨,
84', 0 - 4, Kovacevic F. (Pen),
89', 0 - 5, Kvesic M. ⚽, Iosifov N. (A),

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stockhorn Arena.

Lugano has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Celje is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Lugano is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 2.5:3).

Including home match between the teams, Lugano won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
03.08.25	Sion - Lugano	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.07.25	CFR Cluj - Lugano	1:0 ET ✺
Swiss Super League
27.07.25	Lugano - Thun	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.07.25	Lugano - CFR Cluj	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.25	Lugano - Pro Vercelli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLLTW
- NK Celje
Slovenian PrvaLiga
03.08.25	Olimpija Ljubljana - Celje	0:5 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.07.25	AEK Larnaca - Celje	2:1 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
27.07.25	Celje - Radomlje	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.07.25	Celje - AEK Larnaca	1:1 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
20.07.25	Maribor - Celje	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
13.03.25	Lugano - Celje	5:5 penalties
06.03.25	Celje - Lugano	1:0

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