Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 28 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: Jorgji E. (Alb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Belgium	Play6, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 12
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Israel	Sport 4
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Sporza
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
South-america	ViX Latin America
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2
Thailand	beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Lugano		Gent

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.3	3
	2.35	3.3	2.65
	2.4	3.4	2.85
	2.42	3.6	2.94
	2.33	3.52	2.84	Watch
	2.25	3.5	2.7
	2.4	3.69	2.86
	2.4	3.4	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.6)	3.46 ↑ (3.15)	2.84 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
39.8%

Draw
27.1%

Gent
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

28.2%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

28.1%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugano's performance.

Gent has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gent than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	30%	10%

Lugano - Gent Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Lugano will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Gent will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lugano: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saipi A. (G) 46. Zanotti M. 6. Papadopoulos A. 22. El Wafi A. 23. Valenzuela M. 8. Grgic A. 29. Belhadj M. 11. Steffen R. (C) 25. Bislimi U. 18. Mahou H. 9. Vladi S.	1. Schmidt D. (G) 18. Samoise M. 4. Watanabe T. 23. Torunarigha J. 20. Araujo T. 16. Delorge-Knieper M. 15. Ito A. 24. Kums S. (C) 19. Surdez F. 9. Gudjohnsen A. 11. Sonko M. L.
Substitutes
2. Brault-Guillard Z. 21. Cimignani Y. 27. Dos Santos D. 20. Doumbia O. 17. Mai L. 26. Marques M. 99. Mina D. (G) 58. Osigwe S. (G) 93. Przybylko K. 28. Ryter Y.	3. Brown A. 21. Dean M. 35. De Meyer G. 27. De Vlieger T. 12. Gambor H. 6. Gandelman O. 8. Gerkens P. 13. Mitrovic S. 33. Roef D. (G) 40. Vanden Borre R. (G) 29. Varela H.
Coaches
Croci-Torti M.	Vrancken W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Mahou H. ⚽, Vladi S. (A),
31', Gudjohnsen A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Torunarigha J. 🟨,
60', Valenzuela M. 🟨,
63', Vladi S. ↓, Przybylko K. ↑,
66', Surdez F. ↓, Varela H. ↑,
66', Kums S. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
69', Saipi A. 🟨,
71', Mahou H. 🟨,
71', Mahou H. ↓, Cimignani Y. ↑,
71', Belhadj M. ↓, Doumbia O. ↑,
73', Bislimi U. 🟨,
75', Watanabe T. 🟨,
77', Sonko M. L. ↓, Dean M. ↑,
80', Dean M. 🟨,
86', 2 - 0, Doumbia O. ⚽, Bislimi U. (A),
87', Samoise M. ↓, Brown A. ↑,
90+1', Steffen R. ↓, Mai L. ↑,
90+1', Bislimi U. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

Recent matches Lugano is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gent is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Lugano: Bottani M. (Red Card) Hajdari A. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Gent: Fadiga N. (Heart Problems) Gambor H. (Muscle Injury) Omgba A. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Lugano - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 34.11%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
24.11.24	Lugano - Zürich	4:1 ✺
10.11.24	Young Boys - Lugano	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.11.24	Bačka Topola - Lugano	4:1 ✺
Swiss Super League
03.11.24	Lugano - Yverdon	2:0 ✺
31.10.24	Grasshoppers - Lugano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLLWT
- AA Gent
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
24.11.24	Anderlecht - Gent	6:0 ✺
10.11.24	Gent - Standard Liège	5:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.11.24	Gent - Omonia	1:0 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
03.11.24	Beerschot Wilrijk - Gent	0:0 ✺
Belgian Cup
30.10.24	Gent - Union Rochefortoise	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWWTW

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