Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 24

Date: 22 January 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Moreno A. (Esp)


	Lugo		Villarreal B

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.88	Watch
	2.5	2.85	2.85
	2.55	3	3
	2.6	2.9	2.85
	2.76	2.93	3.03
	2.69	2.89	2.91	Watch
	2.65	2.9	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.35)	2.92 ↑ (2.85)	2.92 ↓ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
35.7%

Draw
32.1%

Villarreal B
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

32.9%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

32.8%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Villarreal B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal B than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Villarreal B, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	46.4%	17.9%

Lugo - Villarreal B Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 10 - 35.7%). Villarreal B will win (votes: 5 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 46.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 27.9% – 64.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 16).

Lugo has the most likely position - 21 (23.42%), has project points - 41, has currently - 21, has a good chance of relegated (72%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Villarreal B has the most likely position - 18 (10.08%), has project points - 50, has currently - 28, has a chance of relegated (24%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 26, importance 45, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Lugo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Lugo have a series of guest games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Lugo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
15.01.23	Mirandés - Lugo	2:0 ✺
06.01.23	Leganés - Lugo	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
30.12.22	Ferrol - Lugo	1:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
17.12.22	Lugo - Granada	1:0 ✺
11.12.22	Ponferradina - Lugo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLTWL
- Villarreal B
Spanish LaLiga2
14.01.23	Villarreal B - Zaragoza	2:3 ✺
06.01.23	Ponferradina - Villarreal B	2:1 ✺
17.12.22	Villarreal B - Las Palmas	0:1 ✺
10.12.22	Villarreal B - Tenerife	2:2 ✺
07.12.22	Cartagena - Villarreal B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
17.09.22	Villarreal B - Lugo	3:1

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