Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 26

Date: 5 February 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Gorostegui Fernandez A. (Esp)


	Lugo		Ibiza

	1	X	2
	2.63	2.9	3	Watch
	2.55	2.8	2.9
	2.55	2.88	3.1
	2.4	2.8	3.05
	2.74	2.9	3.09
	2.58	2.99	2.98	Watch
	2.6	2.8	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.24)	2.87 ↓ (2.98)	3.02 ↓ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
36.3%

Draw
32.7%

Ibiza
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

31.1%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

27.2%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugo's form might have worsened.

Ibiza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Lugo aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ibiza than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Lugo - Ibiza Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 9 - 37.5%). Ibiza will win (votes: 6 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lugo: 18.1% – 56.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 22 in the zone Relegation).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (30.49%), has project points - 38, has currently - 21, has a good chance of relegated (86%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Ibiza has the most likely position - 22 (46.14%), has project points - 36, has currently - 17, has a good chance of relegated (91%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 24, small importance 27, small match rating 25. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Two teams has got a chain of failures in the last matches.

Lugo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Lugo have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Lugo won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
29.01.23	Albacete Balompié - Lugo	2:0 ✺
22.01.23	Lugo - Villarreal B	1:2 ✺
15.01.23	Mirandés - Lugo	2:0 ✺
06.01.23	Leganés - Lugo	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
30.12.22	Ferrol - Lugo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLLT
- UD Ibiza
Spanish LaLiga2
29.01.23	Ibiza - Cartagena	2:2 ✺
21.01.23	Granada - Ibiza	2:0 ✺
14.01.23	Ibiza - Las Palmas	1:2 ✺
08.01.23	Eibar - Ibiza	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
21.12.22	Ceuta - Ibiza	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
02.10.22	Ibiza - Lugo	3:2
08.05.22	Ibiza - Lugo	1:1
05.12.21	Lugo - Ibiza	0:0

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