Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 25

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Pasarón (Pontevedra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, TVG 2


	Pontevedra		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.95	3	3.7
	2.08	2.98	3.65
	2.17	2.97	3.47
	2.29	2.95	3.39	Watch
	2.05	2.75	3.6
	2.07	2.92	3.66
	2.12	2.9	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.24)	2.92 ↓ (3.09)	3.55 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontevedra
43.3%

Draw
31.1%

Lugo
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

30.1%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

29.1%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontevedra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontevedra than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Pontevedra - Lugo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Marqueta R. (G) 23. Montoro A. 4. Bosch M. 19. Garay B. 10. Pino Y. (C) 16. Vidorreta A. 20. Gil A. 21. Gomez D. 18. Lopez R. 8. Abelenda B. 22. Comparada Gonzalez A.	1. Martinez M. (C) 16. Jose Amo 3. Garriz I. 6. Haro P. 2. Rodriguez Y. 14. Presa K. 9. Celorio N. 8. Balboa A. 5. Gallar A. 19. Unzueta I. 7. Gonzalez J.
Substitutes
28. Canosa Toscano S. 2. Eimil V. 3. Exposito A. 17. Macias L. 33. Outeirino I. 5. Perez A. 14. Resende J. 6. Ribeiro A. 1. Sousa E. (G)	10. Alba T. 36. Candal J. (G) 18. Costa G. 24. Gaya J. 23. Junior L. 20. Lopez I. 13. Piedra I. (G) 15. Reniero N. 22. Samanes S. 25. Sanchez B. 21. Teofilovic O. 4. Trigueros P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Bosch M. 🟨,
35', Gomez D. 🟨,
38', Pino Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Presa K. ↓, Samanes S. ↑,
58', Samanes S. 🟨,
60', Celorio N. ↓, Reniero N. ↑,
71', Samanes S. 🟨,
71', 🟨,
73', Garay B. ↓, Ribeiro A. ↑,
74', Gallar A. ↓, Junior L. ↑,
74', Unzueta I. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
76', Gil A. ↓, Macias L. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Pino Y. ⚽,
80', Comparada Gonzalez A. ↓, Resende J. ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Reniero N. ⚽,
89', Rodriguez Y. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
89', Gonzalez J. ↓, Teofilovic O. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 7).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Pontevedra is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pontevedra won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontevedra won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16
11	Pontevedra	6	2	2	2	8:8	0	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontevedra CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.02.26	Cacereño - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Pontevedra - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Talavera de la Reina - Pontevedra	0:4 ✺
23.01.26	Mérida AD - Pontevedra	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Pontevedra - Arenteiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTWTT
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
15.02.26	Lugo - CD Guadalajara	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Ferrol - Lugo	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Lugo - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.11.25	Lugo - Pontevedra	1:0
Club Friendly
17.08.24	Pontevedra - Lugo	1:0
27.07.22	Pontevedra - Lugo	1:0
25.07.18	Pontevedra - Lugo	2:1 penalties
06.08.13	Pontevedra - Lugo	2:1

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