Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 18

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Lugo		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	3.5
	2.15	3	3.4
	2.31	2.95	3.35	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.5
	2.08	3.21	3.63
	2	2.8	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.97)	2.99 ↓ (3.26)	3.56 ↓ (3.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lugo
43.7%

Draw
30.6%

Mérida AD
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

28.5%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

27.6%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Lugo - Mérida AD Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Mérida AD will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Lugo (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lugo will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugo (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra I. (G) 20. Lopez I. 3. Garriz I. 16. Jose Amo 17. Caballo D. 7. Gonzalez J. 14. Presa K. 10. Alba T. 11. Pastrana V. 15. Reniero N. 19. Unzueta I.	1. Csenterics A. (G) 19. Pipe 5. Dominguez J. 3. Lancho J. 23. Verges E. 11. Areso J. 8. Solar M. 18. Dibrani B. 21. Beneit R. 7. Chiqui 24. Pereira R.
Substitutes
8. Balboa A. 9. Celorio N. 24. Gaya J. 23. Junior L. 1. Martinez M. (G) 33. Munoz M. 6. Nicholas N. 18. Roson D. 22. Samanes S. 21. Teofilovic O. 4. Trigueros P.	14. Artola J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 15. Martinez G. 6. Miki 22. Rivas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Lancho J. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Reniero N. ⚽,
40', Pipe 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lopez I. ↓, Gaya J. ↑,
50', Pastrana V. 🟨,
53', Reniero N. 🟨,
61', Reniero N. ↓, Junior L. ↑,
61', Gonzalez J. ↓, Samanes S. ↑,
61', Pastrana V. ↓, Balboa A. ↑,
65', Pereira R. ↓, Artola J. ↑,
68', Alba T. ↓, Teofilovic O. ↑,
74', Dibrani B. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
74', Solar M. ↓, Capitas M. ↑,
80', Beneit R. 🟨,
82', Lancho J. ↓, Gomes R. ↑,
82', Beneit R. ↓, Rivas M. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 9).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mérida AD may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lugo might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.12.25	Lugo - Ourense CF	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Osasuna B - Lugo	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Lugo - Tenerife	2:2 ✺
29.11.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Lugo	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	Lugo - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WTTLW
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.12.25	Mérida AD - Athletic Bilbao B	2:3 ✺
14.12.25	Talavera de la Reina - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Mérida AD - Ourense CF	3:2 ✺
29.11.25	Ferrol - Mérida AD	2:2 ✺
22.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLWTW

Upcoming Matches