Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 13

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Mérida AD		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	4
	1.82	3.3	4.15
	1.82	3.47	4.19	Watch
	1.78	3.24	4.38
	1.75	3.33	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.81)	3.33 ↓ (3.36)	4.18 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
50.8%

Draw
27.4%

Real Avilés
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

27.2%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

26.3%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Mérida AD - Real Avilés Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 20. Jacobo R. 4. Pareja L. 3. Lancho J. 22. Rivas M. 10. Doncel C. 8. Solar M. 18. Dibrani B. 21. Beneit R. 7. Chiqui 9. Garcia A.	1. Fernandez A. (G) 2. Ortega G. 5. Babin J. 12. Granero B. 26. Carracedo O. 7. Hernandez R. 8. Bautista K. 16. Gomez A. 14. Cayarga B. 9. Santamaria A. 11. Rubio R.
Substitutes
11. Areso J. 14. Artola J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 5. Dominguez J. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 15. Martinez G. 6. Miki 24. Pereira R. 19. Pipe	13. Almodovar N. (G) 21. Alvarez P. 17. Bari Q. 20. Campabadal E. 15. Chukwuma E. 10. Cueto J. 3. Diaz V. 18. Gete A. 22. Isi Ros 19. Poquet N. 4. Rodriguez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Gomez A. 🟨,
10', 1 - 0, Garcia A. ⚽,
32', Carracedo O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 🟨,
53', Doncel C. 🟨,
60', Santamaria A. ↓, Isi Ros ↑,
60', Hernandez R. ↓, Bari Q. ↑,
60', Gomez A. ↓, Gete A. ↑,
63', Beneit R. 🟨,
67', Gete A. 🟨,
71', Cayarga B. ↓, Cueto J. ↑,
74', Jacobo R. 🟨,
78', 2 - 0, Martinez G. ⚽,
80', 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 1, Cueto J. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Mérida AD may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mérida AD is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
15.11.25	Pontevedra - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Mérida AD	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Navalcarnero - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
24.10.25	Mérida AD - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TWWLT
- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.11.25	Real Avilés - Arenas Club de Getxo	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Cacereño - Real Avilés	0:4 ✺
02.11.25	Real Avilés - Arenteiro	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
30.10.25	Real Ávila - Real Avilés	1:0 ET ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Real Avilés	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWWLL

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