Match Info

SPAIN: COPA DEL REY - 1/32-FINALS

Date: 6 December 2023, Wednesday


	Lugo		Mirandés

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3.6	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.04	3.36	3.58
	2.04	3.36	3.52
	1.95	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.08	3.42	3.56	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (3.43)	3.34 ↑ (3.28)	3.5 ↑ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
45.4%

Draw
28%

Mirandés
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

27.8%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

27.5%

46%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugo's performance.

Mirandés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mirandés might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-19%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirandés than the current prediction. (+19.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mirandés could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	35.7%	28.6%

Lugo - Mirandés Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Mirandés will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lugo: 10.6% – 60.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diaz Parcero L. (G) 12. Louis-Jean J. 4. Perez G. 6. Castrin A. 22. Lopez A. 15. Narro V. 8. Aguza S. 11. Antonin 21. Abdulai S. 10. Aranda A. 23. Antonetti L.	13. Lopez L. (G) 3. Barbu (C) 17. Iosifov N. 19. Lachuer M. 14. Durdov I. 21. Moreno D. 26. Alcedo J. 29. Godoy A. 15. Tomeo P. 30. Ortiz A. 28. Orobio E.
Substitutes
19. Fuentes A. 27. Gonzalez J. 7. Ledesma L. 2. Martinez C. 14. Morgado C. 20. Ojeda T. 9. Quintana Nacho 26. Roson D. 13. Tabuaco G. (G) 17. Torrado C. 3. Vazquez J.	. Bartolome D. 11. Chaira I. 24. Gomez J. 1. Juan Ramirez R. (G) 34. Rosales D. 4. Sergio Barcia 35. Zarate H.
Coaches
Munitis P.	Lisci A.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Lugo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Lugo won 7 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 22-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 7 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.12.23	Sestao - Lugo	0:1 ✺
25.11.23	Lugo - Arenteiro	0:1 ✺
19.11.23	Sabadell - Lugo	0:1 ✺
12.11.23	Lugo - Leonesa	0:3 ✺
05.11.23	Unionistas de Salamanca - Lugo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWLT
- CD Mirandés
Spanish LaLiga2
03.12.23	Mirandés - Racing Santander	0:0 ✺
26.11.23	Mirandés - Real Oviedo	2:1 ✺
19.11.23	Eldense - Mirandés	2:2 ✺
11.11.23	Mirandés - Ferrol	1:2 ✺
04.11.23	Levante - Mirandés	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
15.01.23	Mirandés - Lugo	2:0
30.10.22	Lugo - Mirandés	0:0
09.01.22	Lugo - Mirandés	2:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.12.21	Lugo - Mirandés	1:2
Spanish LaLiga2
03.11.21	Mirandés - Lugo	3:2
15.05.21	Lugo - Mirandés	2:1
05.12.20	Mirandés - Lugo	0:0

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