Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 13

Date: 19 November 2023, Sunday


	Sabadell		Lugo

	1	X	2
	4	3.25	1.85
	3.5	2.95	2
	3.6	3.1	2.1	Watch
	3.7	3.18	2.09
	3.7	3.18	2.09
	2.45	2.9	2.6
	3.7	3.14	2.03
	3.95	3.05	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.58 ↑ (2.62)	3.09 ↑ (3)	2.09 ↓ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sabadell
25.8%

Draw
29.9%

Lugo
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

30.8%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

31.4%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sabadell has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sabadell's form might have worsened.

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lugo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sabadell than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sabadell, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lugo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Sabadell - Lugo Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 10 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lugo: 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ortola A. (C) 11. Astals D. 5. Resta P. 21. Callejon F. 16. Herrero T. 19. Garcia N. 12. Domenech M. 7. Moyano A. 26. Sander Ballero 10. Herrera C. 9. Martinez M.	1. Diaz L. (G) 17. Torrado C. 4. Perez G. 6. Castrin A. 3. Vazquez J. 20. Ojeda T. 18. Jozabed 15. Narro V. 9. Quintana Nacho 10. Aranda A. 11. Antonin
Substitutes
15. Amelibia J. 6. Beitia C. 3. Carrion J. 18. Farres B. 8. Gualda A. 17. Kopotun V. 22. Naranjo G. 4. Pujol R. 27. Saez M. 2. Sanchez A. 24. Tou S. (G)	21. Abdulai S. 8. Aguza S. 23. Antonetti L. 5. Bernardo 19. Fuentes A. 27. Gonzalez J. 22. Lopez A. 2. Martinez C. 13. Tabuaco G. (G)

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sabadell won 3.

Sabadell has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lugo is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Sabadell could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Our prediction for today's Lugo to win the game is with odds 2.78.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Sabadell won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Sabadell won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sabadell FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.11.23	Barcelona B - Sabadell	4:1 ✺
05.11.23	Sabadell - Real Sociedad B	1:2 ✺
28.10.23	Celta de Vigo B - Sabadell	4:2 ✺
21.10.23	Sabadell - Deportivo A Coruña	0:1 ✺
14.10.23	Rayo Majadahonda - Sabadell	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.11.23	Lugo - Leonesa	0:3 ✺
05.11.23	Unionistas de Salamanca - Lugo	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
01.11.23	Antoniano - Lugo	0:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.10.23	Lugo - Real Unión de Irun	2:0 ✺
22.10.23	Rayo Majadahonda - Lugo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
28.03.21	Lugo - Sabadell	0:1
11.01.21	Sabadell - Lugo	1:1
11.04.15	Sabadell - Lugo	2:1
09.11.14	Lugo - Sabadell	2:1
30.03.14	Sabadell - Lugo	1:0
27.10.13	Lugo - Sabadell	1:0
26.05.13	Lugo - Sabadell	2:0

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