Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 30

Date: 5 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Frances R. (Esp)


	Lugo		Zaragoza

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.4	2.8	2.2
	3.55	2.95	2.25
	3.45	2.9	2.24
	3.84	2.94	2.31
	3.66	2.94	2.25	Watch
	3.5	2.95	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (3.25)	2.94 ↓ (3)	2.25 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
26.4%

Draw
31.9%

Zaragoza
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

30.4%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

29.8%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Zaragoza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zaragoza than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	44.4%	33.3%

Lugo - Zaragoza Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Zaragoza will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 17).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (46.22%), has project points - 35, has currently - 22, has a very good chance of relegated (97%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Zaragoza has the most likely position - 17 (10.3%), has project points - 51, has currently - 34, has a small chance of relegated (9%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 26, small importance 18, small match rating 22. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 1.

Lugo has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Zaragoza is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Zaragoza could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Zaragoza will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Lugo won 5 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 21-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14-15.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
26.02.23	Levante - Lugo	3:1 ✺
18.02.23	Lugo - Eibar	0:2 ✺
11.02.23	Las Palmas - Lugo	3:0 ✺
05.02.23	Lugo - Ibiza	0:0 ✺
29.01.23	Albacete Balompié - Lugo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL
- Real Zaragoza
Spanish LaLiga2
26.02.23	Zaragoza - Burgos	0:0 ✺
20.02.23	Málaga - Zaragoza	3:0 ✺
11.02.23	Zaragoza - Deportivo Alavés	1:4 ✺
05.02.23	FC Andorra - Zaragoza	0:1 ✺
30.01.23	Zaragoza - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
04.09.22	Zaragoza - Lugo	1:2
20.05.22	Zaragoza - Lugo	1:0
26.09.21	Lugo - Zaragoza	1:1
30.04.21	Lugo - Zaragoza	2:2
19.12.20	Zaragoza - Lugo	1:0
16.06.20	Lugo - Zaragoza	1:3
21.09.19	Zaragoza - Lugo	0:0

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