Match Info

Primera Division - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


El-salvador	Canal 4, TCS GO


	Luis Ángel Firpo		Águila

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.20	3.10
	2.05	3.05	3.25
	2.17	3.3	3.4
	2.16	3.2	3.41	Watch
	2.14	3.05	3.35
	2.09	3.39	3.39
	2.05	3.1	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2.04)	3.18 ↑ (3.15)	3.31 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luis Ángel Firpo
43.6%

Draw
28.8%

Águila
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

28.5%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

29.2%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luis Ángel Firpo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Águila has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luis Ángel Firpo than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Águila than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Luis Ángel Firpo - Águila Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Jimenez J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
75', Jimenez J. 🟥,
90+5', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 4th in the Promotion ~ Primera Division (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals) and 6th in the Promotion ~ Primera Division (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luis Ángel Firpo won 2.

Luis Ángel Firpo is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Águila is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Luis Ángel Firpo may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Luis Ángel Firpo has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Luis Ángel Firpo holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Luis Ángel Firpo has recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:27 (averaging 1.3:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Luis Ángel Firpo against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 9:4 goals (averaging 1:0.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Luis Angel Firpo	13	7	4	2	23:9	14	25
5	Aguila	14	5	5	4	22:18	4	20

Last Results with these Odds

Luis Ángel Firpo - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 43.95%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luis Ángel Firpo
El Salvador Primera Division
23.09.26	Luis Ángel Firpo - Cacahuatique	0:0 ✺
20.09.26	Luis Ángel Firpo - Atlético Balboa	3:1 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
17.09.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Luis Ángel Firpo	3:0 ✺
El Salvador Primera Division
13.09.26	Luis Ángel Firpo - Isidro Metapán	1:2 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
10.09.26	Luis Ángel Firpo - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TWLLL
- CD Águila
El Salvador Primera Division
20.09.26	Platense Municipal Zacatecoluca - Águila	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Águila - INCA-Aruba	3:1 ✺
09.09.26	Municipal Limeño - Águila	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Águila - Alianza San Miguel	2:2 ✺
30.08.26	Águila - Fuerte San Francisco	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

El Salvador Primera Division
26.07.26	Águila - Luis Ángel Firpo	1:1
16.05.26	Luis Ángel Firpo - Águila	0:2 penalties
13.05.26	Águila - Luis Ángel Firpo	1:2
01.05.26	Águila - Luis Ángel Firpo	1:1
08.03.26	Luis Ángel Firpo - Águila	1:0
13.12.25	Luis Ángel Firpo - Águila	0:1
07.12.25	Águila - Luis Ángel Firpo	1:3

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