Match Info

PORTUGAL: CAMPEONATO DE PORTUGAL - ROUND 21

Date: 5 March 2023, Sunday


	Lusitânia		Castro Daire

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.1	6.5
	1.34	4	7
	1.46	3.91	7.83
	1.43	4.1	7
	1.41	4.1	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.43)	4.04 ↑ (3.99)	7.03 ↑ (6.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
64.6%

Draw
22.5%

Castro Daire
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.1%

22.7%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.1%

21%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Castro Daire has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castro Daire than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Lusitânia - Castro Daire Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal (Play Offs) and 13 in the zone Relegation).

Lusitânia in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Castro Daire is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Lusitânia is indisputable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Lusitânia to win the game is with odds 1.36.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Lusitânia won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Lusitânia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
26.02.23	Beira-Mar - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
19.02.23	Lusitânia - Marítimo B	3:1 ✺
12.02.23	Guarda Desportiva - Lusitânia	0:2 ✺
05.02.23	Resende - Lusitânia	0:3 ✺
29.01.23	Lusitânia - Gondomar	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWWW
- AD Castro Daire
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
26.02.23	Castro Daire - Gondomar	0:0 ✺
19.02.23	Salgueiros 08 - Castro Daire	1:1 ✺
12.02.23	Castro Daire - Rebordosa	2:2 ✺
05.02.23	Alpendorada - Castro Daire	1:0 ✺
29.01.23	Castro Daire - Valadares Gaia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
20.11.22	Castro Daire - Lusitânia	0:2
14.03.21	Castro Daire - Lusitânia	0:3
20.12.20	Lusitânia - Castro Daire	2:0

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