Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 15

Date: 22 December 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes (Vila Nova de Gaia)

Referee: Lima F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV4


	Lusitânia		Oliveirense

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.2	3.5	Watch
	1.78	3.25	3.9
	2	3.3	3.6
	1.82	3.8	4.38
	1.98	3.53	3.65	Watch
	1.85	3.2	3.9
	1.94	3.4	3.79	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.87)	3.39 ↓ (3.74)	3.8 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
48.5%

Draw
27.3%

Oliveirense
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

25%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

24.3%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Oliveirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	20.8%	4.2%

Lusitânia - Oliveirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Lusitânia will win (votes: 18 - 75%). Oliveirense will win (votes: 1 - 4.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 20.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lusitânia: 57.7% – 92.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lusitânia will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Vitor Hugo (G) 3. Josue Sa 5. Silverio (C) 4. Collard D. 29. Cerveira T. 8. Tokinho Doria 27. Fabinho 16. Rocha L. 77. Tiago Dias 11. Pereira M. 12. Arsenio	31. Ribeiro R. (G) 2. Douglas Borel 4. Bura (C) 75. Namora N. 19. Lopes A. 10. Bruno Silva 14. Pereira D. 8. Ondoa F. 54. Martins S. 21. Silva J. 9. Martelo P.
Substitutes
60. Danny 20. Do Marcolino F. 22. Faria B. 21. Joao Vasco 7. Martins R. 19. Palacios A. 99. Platiny 23. Sousa M. (G) 88. Teixeira M.	26. Bastos L. 16. Diallo A. 6. Dioh I. 40. Greis N. (G) 23. Gustavao 11. Joanderson 7. Joao Adriano 99. Sabino 13. Santos V.
Coaches
Miguel Pedro	Pinto J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Tokinho Doria 🟥,
45+2', Silva J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fabinho ↓, Teixeira M. ↑,
59', Tiago Dias ↓, Joao Vasco ↑,
65', Lopes A. ↓, Bastos L. ↑,
65', Douglas Borel ↓, Joanderson ↑,
75', 0 - 1, Ondoa F. ⚽,
80', Arsenio ↓, Do Marcolino F. ↑,
83', Silva J. ↓, Santos V. ↑,
83', Pereira D. ↓, Dioh I. ↑,
87', Silverio ↓, Palacios A. ↑,
88', Cerveira T. ↓, Platiny ↑,
89', Martelo P. ↓, Sabino ↑,

Preview

Neutral location - Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes.

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

Lusitânia is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Oliveirense is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Lusitânia is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lusitânia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Lusitânia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Lusitânia - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 49.93%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
14.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Lusitânia	1:5 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitânia - Portimonense	3:2 ✺
30.11.25	Porto B - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Lusitânia - Torreense	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
09.11.25	Lusitânia - Leiria	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWLT
- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese Liga 2
12.12.25	Oliveirense - Chaves	2:3 ✺
06.12.25	Benfica B - Oliveirense	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Oliveirense - Leixões	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Portimonense - Oliveirense	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Oliveirense - Marítimo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
05.03.22	Oliveirense - Lusitânia	4:4
07.12.21	Lusitânia - Oliveirense	0:1

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