Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 31

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Lusitânia		Paços de Ferreira

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	2.88
	2.25	3	2.85
	2.4	3.05	2.98
	2.43	3.2	3.15
	2.35	3.19	3.05	Watch
	2.3	2.88	2.9
	2.36	3.05	3.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.5)	3.05 ↓ (3.07)	2.99 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
39.3%

Draw
30%

Paços de Ferreira
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

30.4%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

29.4%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Lusitânia - Paços de Ferreira Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Paços de Ferreira (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Paços de Ferreira (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Vitor Hugo (G) 60. Danny 22. Faria B. 3. Josue Sa 16. Rocha L. 27. Fabinho 5. Silverio (C) 88. Teixeira M. 11. Pereira M. 9. Silva J. 7. Martins R.	1. Rafa (G) 21. Anilson 23. Ferreira T. (C) 77. Rafael 15. Dias L. 26. Cunha N. 88. Francisco Ramos 90. Lumungo R. 8. Costa D. 11. Fale M. 9. Victor J.
Substitutes
6. Alhassan I. 29. Cerveira T. 4. Collard D. 21. Joao Vasco 28. Mesquita T. 24. Mimito 99. Platiny 23. Sousa M. (G) 77. Tiago Dias	47. da Silva Moreira I. A. 3. Diegao 7. Diego Fernandes 4. Kauan 28. Marafona (G) 22. Mota 13. Pinto J. 36. Silva V. 5. Sousa A.
Coaches
Miguel Pedro	Braga N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Silva J. ⚽,
25', Ferreira T. 🟨,
38', Danny 🟨,
45', Lumungo R. 🟨,
45+1', Vitor Hugo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Martins R. ↓, Joao Vasco ↑,
63', Victor J. ↓, da Silva Moreira I. A. ↑,
63', Francisco Ramos ↓, Diegao ↑,
67', Faria B. 🟨,
67', Anilson 🟨,
74', Fabinho ↓, Alhassan I. ↑,
74', Silva J. ↓, Tiago Dias ↑,
75', Anilson ↓, Mota ↑,
75', Cunha N. ↓, Diego Fernandes ↑,
81', Teixeira M. ↓, Mimito ↑,
81', Danny ↓, Mesquita T. ↑,
85', Rafael ↓, Silva V. ↑,
86', 2 - 0, Joao Vasco ⚽,
89', Fale M. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 13 and 15)

Lusitânia is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Paços de Ferreira has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Paços de Ferreira may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lusitânia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Lusitânia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lusitania FC	6	5	1	0	11:4	7	16

Last Results with these Odds

Paços de Ferreira - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32.21%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
19.04.26	Portimonense - Lusitânia	3:2 ✺
13.04.26	Lusitânia - Porto B	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Leiria - Lusitânia	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Lusitânia - Académico de Viseu	0:3 ✺
15.03.26	Vizela - Lusitânia	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTTLL
- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
18.04.26	Paços de Ferreira - Chaves	4:3 ✺
10.04.26	Felgueiras - Paços de Ferreira	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Paços de Ferreira - Marítimo	0:0 ✺
29.03.26	Leiria - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Leixões - Paços de Ferreira	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
14.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Lusitânia	1:5
Club Friendly
30.07.25	Paços de Ferreira - Lusitânia	0:1
29.07.23	Lusitânia - Paços de Ferreira	2:1

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