Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe (Fafe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Fafe		Arouca

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	2.15
	3.05	3.55	2.08
	3.18	2.27	3.13	Watch
	3.14	3.5	2.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↓ (5.03)	3.18 ↓ (4.25)	2.37 ↑ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fafe
30.4%

Draw
29.8%

Arouca
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.3%

21.6%

60.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

19.1%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fafe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fafe's performance.

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arouca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fafe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arouca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Fafe - Arouca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Joao Goncalo (G) 85. Castro D. 26. Batista J. 4. Teixeira L. 13. Vigario J. 35. Cardoso F. 8. Braga V. 7. Veiga T. 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 77. Carlos Daniel 95. Fonseca T.	1. Valido J. (G) 78. Alex Pinto 66. Fayed O. 5. Popovic B. (C) 16. Sola A. 21. Fukui T. 22. van Ee E. 11. Puche 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 23. Nandin D.
Substitutes
20. Amorim J. 15. Breno 1. Damaso N. (G) 10. Ka 11. Picas 9. Santos J. 5. Ze Oliveira	17. Barbero I. 10. Gozalbez P. 24. Mansilla B. 58. Mantl N. (G) 6. Monteiro D. 89. Pedro Santos 8. Simao D. 28. Tiago Esgaio 19. Trezza A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Djouahra N. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Veiga T. ↓, Santos J. ↑,
46', Braga V. ↓, Picas ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Ribeiro Oliveira J. ⚽,
52', Nandin D. 🟨,
61', Fayed O. 🟨,
63', Lee H. ↓, Trezza A. ↑,
63', Puche ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
71', Fonseca T. ↓, Ka ↑,
72', van Ee E. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
83', Popovic B. 🟨,
87', Nandin D. ↓, Barbero I. ↑,
87', Alex Pinto ↓, Tiago Esgaio ↑,
87', Carlos Daniel ↓, Davis SIlva ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

Fafe is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arouca is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arouca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Arouca is a strong favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Sanjoanense - Fafe	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Braga B - Fafe	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Fafe - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Fafe - Moreirense	1:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
10.10.25	Fafe - Amarante	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 TLWWW
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
07.11.25	Estoril Praia - Arouca	4:3 ✺
02.11.25	Arouca - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Benfica - Arouca	5:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Portimonense - Arouca	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Arouca - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLWT

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