Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 17

Date: 8 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Referee: Melo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV6


	Lusitânia		Leixões

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.3
	2	3.1	3.25
	2.12	3.15	3.4
	2.09	3.31	3.52	Watch
	2.15	2.88	3.3
	2.14	3.13	3.5	Watch
	2.1	3	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.92)	3.11 ↓ (3.35)	3.42 ↓ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
43.7%

Draw
29.5%

Leixões
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

27.4%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

26.4%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Leixões has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lusitânia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	15%	15%

Lusitânia - Leixões Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Lusitânia will win (votes: 13 - 68.4%). Leixões will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lusitânia: 47.5% – 89.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitânia (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Vitor Hugo (G) 3. Josue Sa 5. Silverio (C) 4. Collard D. 29. Cerveira T. 21. Joao Vasco 88. Teixeira M. 16. Rocha L. 77. Tiago Dias 11. Pereira M. 12. Arsenio	51. Stefanovic I. (C) 3. Figueiredo L. 5. Naldo 4. Rafael Santos 11. Agra S. 66. Balde A. 22. Araujo C. 15. Simaozinho 35. Rochez B. 7. Werton 9. Bica
Substitutes
60. Danny 20. Do Marcolino F. 22. Faria B. 7. Martins R. 33. Ortiz N. 19. Palacios A. 99. Platiny 1. Ricardo M. (G) 8. Tokinho Doria	13. Evrard Zag 63. Faria H. 18. Kanuric B. 1. Morro M. (G) 8. Neto 10. Paulite 94. Rajani M. 30. Serif N. 91. Valente R.
Coaches
Miguel Pedro	Fangueiro C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Rochez B. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
52', Rafael Santos 🟨,
54', 1 - 1, Arsenio ⚽,
62', Tiago Dias ↓, Platiny ↑,
65', Werton ↓, Evrard Zag ↑,
67', Arsenio 🟨,
74', Arsenio ↓, Tokinho Doria ↑,
75', Silverio 🟨,
81', 2 - 1, Joao Vasco ⚽,
84', Simaozinho 🟨,
86', Simaozinho ↓, Valente R. ↑,
86', Rochez B. ↓, Serif N. ↑,
86', Rafael Santos ↓, Rajani M. ↑,
86', Balde A. ↓, Kanuric B. ↑,
90+1', Joao Vasco ↓, Do Marcolino F. ↑,
90+1', Teixeira M. ↓, Faria B. ↑,
90+7', Kanuric B. 🟨,
90+10', 2 - 2, Bica ⚽,
90+11', Bica 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Lusitânia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Leixões is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Leixões may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lusitânia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Lusitânia will win today's game, with odds of 2.09.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lusitânia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lusitânia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 2:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lusitania FC	6	5	1	0	11:4	7	16
8	Leixoes	6	3	1	2	8:6	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Lusitânia - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 47.7%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
30.12.25	Torreense - Lusitânia	0:1 ✺
22.12.25	Lusitânia - Oliveirense	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Lusitânia	1:5 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitânia - Portimonense	3:2 ✺
30.11.25	Porto B - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLWWW
- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
21.12.25	Leixões - Marítimo	1:4 ✺
14.12.25	Portimonense - Leixões	1:2 ✺
06.12.25	Leixões - Porto B	2:4 ✺
29.11.25	Oliveirense - Leixões	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Vila Meã - Leixões	2:1 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
10.07.24	Lusitânia - Leixões	2:2
19.07.23	Lusitânia - Leixões	1:2
05.08.18	Lusitânia - Leixões	3:2

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