Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 16

Date: 30 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Manuel Marques (Torres Vedras)

Referee: Torres M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Torreense		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.25	3	3.25
	2.24	3.18	3.29	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.1
	2.26	3.04	3.32	Watch
	2.28	2.9	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.21)	3.02 ↓ (3.39)	3.25 ↑ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torreense
40.9%

Draw
30.6%

Lusitânia
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

27.5%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

28.4%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torreense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torreense than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Torreense - Lusitânia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Torreense will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Lusitânia will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Torreense: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Paes (G) 57. Danilo 93. Mohamed D. 2. Stopira (C) 23. Vazquez J. 6. Leo Silva 10. Costinha 20. Pite 7. Jean D. 17. Drammeh M. 31. Seydi I.	32. Vitor Hugo (G) 3. Josue Sa 5. Silverio (C) 4. Collard D. 29. Cerveira T. 21. Joao Vasco 88. Teixeira M. 16. Rocha L. 77. Tiago Dias 11. Pereira M. 12. Arsenio
Substitutes
77. Afonso Peixoto 99. Arielson 56. Caio Amaral 4. Casas A. 22. David Bruno 5. Pena A. 13. Perez U. (G) 11. Pozo M. 9. Zohi K.	60. Danny 20. Do Marcolino F. 22. Faria B. 50. Machado J. 7. Martins R. 33. Ortiz N. 19. Palacios A. 99. Platiny 1. Ricardo M. (G)
Coaches
Martins V.	Miguel Pedro

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Rocha L. 🟨,
32', Mohamed D. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Joao Vasco ⚽,
45+3', Costinha 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Costinha ↓, Pozo M. ↑,
60', Seydi I. ↓, Casas A. ↑,
69', Tiago Dias ↓, Platiny ↑,
71', Danilo ↓, Zohi K. ↑,
81', Pereira M. ↓, Martins R. ↑,
87', Mohamed D. ↓, Arielson ↑,
88', Pite 🟨,
90', Teixeira M. ↓, Faria B. ↑,
90', Joao Vasco ↓, Do Marcolino F. ↑,
90+3', Martins R. 🟨,
90+6', Faria B. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 10).

Torreense has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lusitânia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lusitânia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Torreense will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Torreense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Torreense - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.25%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SCU Torreense
Portuguese Liga 2
21.12.25	Penafiel - Torreense	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Casa Pia - Torreense	1:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
12.12.25	Torreense - Feirense	2:3 ✺
06.12.25	Marítimo - Torreense	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Torreense - Chaves	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLLL
- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
22.12.25	Lusitânia - Oliveirense	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Lusitânia	1:5 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitânia - Portimonense	3:2 ✺
30.11.25	Porto B - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Lusitânia - Torreense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Lusitânia - Torreense	0:1

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