Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 4

Date: 30 August 2024, Friday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Madley R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
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India	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	NOW
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Japan	DAZN Japan
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Sporty TV
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV5
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1, NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports+, Sky Ultra
Usa	Paramount+
World	Disney+


	Luton Town		Queens Park Rangers

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	3.7	Watch
	1.98	3.6	3.6
	1.99	3.72	3.57	Watch
	1.99	3.67	3.93
	1.98	3.66	3.7	Watch
	2	3.6	3.7
	1.96	3.72	3.67	Watch
	1.99	3.72	3.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.79)	3.65 ↓ (3.73)	3.68 ↓ (4.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
48.1%

Draw
26%

Queens Park Rangers
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

25.3%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

24.7%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Queens Park Rangers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luton Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Queens Park Rangers than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	15%	15%

Luton Town - Queens Park Rangers Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). QPR will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Kaminski T. (G) 16. Burke R. 6. McGuinness M. 3. Bell A. 2. Walters R. 26. Baptiste S. 18. Clark J. 45. Doughty A. 9. Morris C. (C) 14. Chong T. 11. Adebayo E.	1. Nardi P. (G) 3. Dunne J. 5. Cook S. 6. Clarke-Salter J. 22. Paal K. 4. Colback J. 8. Field S. 7. Dembele K. 24. Madsen N. 28. Lloyd A. 12. Frey M.
Substitutes
29. Holmes T. 15. Mengi T. 17. Mpanzu P. 13. Nakamba M. 37. Nelson Z. 1. Shea J. (G) 25. Taylor J. 20. Walsh L. 10. Woodrow C.	25. Andersen L. 18. Celar Z. 19. Dixon-Bonner E. 23. Hevertton S. 16. Morrison L. 14. Saito K. 11. Smyth P. 40. Varane J. 13. Walsh J. (G)
Coaches
Edwards R.	Cifuentes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Chong T. 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Dunne J. (Own goal),
30', Cook S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Burke R. ↓, Mengi T. ↑,
48', Doughty A. 🟨,
51', Field S. 🟨,
57', Lloyd A. ↓, Smyth P. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Madsen N. ⚽, Frey M. (A),
62', 1 - 2, Frey M. ⚽, Paal K. (A),
75', Colback J. ↓, Andersen L. ↑,
75', Madsen N. ↓, Varane J. ↑,
75', Chong T. ↓, Walsh L. ↑,
75', McGuinness M. ↓, Taylor J. ↑,
79', Clark J. 🟨,
82', Dembele K. ↓, Saito K. ↑,
82', Frey M. ↓, Celar Z. ↑,
84', Baptiste S. ↓, Nelson Z. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Luton won 2.

Luton has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches QPR is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Luton will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Luton: Brown J. (Knee Injury) Hashioka D. (Leg Injury) Lockyer T. (Heart Problems)

There will not play in QPR: Andersen L. (Groin Injury) Chair I. (Back Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Luton won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 12-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League Cup
27.08.24	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	2:1 penalties ✺
English League Championship
24.08.24	Preston North End - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
17.08.24	Portsmouth - Luton Town	0:0 ✺
12.08.24	Luton Town - Burnley	1:4 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Luton Town - Celta de Vigo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL
- Queens Park Rangers
English League Cup
27.08.24	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	2:1 penalties ✺
English League Championship
24.08.24	Queens Park Rangers - Plymouth Argyle	1:1 ✺
17.08.24	Sheffield United - Queens Park Rangers	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
13.08.24	Cambridge United - Queens Park Rangers	1:2 ✺
English League Championship
10.08.24	Queens Park Rangers - West Bromwich Albion	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
27.08.24	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	2:1 penalties
English League Championship
29.12.22	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	0:3
15.10.22	Luton Town - Queens Park Rangers	3:1
13.03.22	Luton Town - Queens Park Rangers	1:2
19.11.21	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	2:0
08.05.21	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	3:1
12.01.21	Luton Town - Queens Park Rangers	0:2

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