Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 26

Date: 6 January 2025, Monday

Location: Loftus Road (London)

Referee: Davies A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Disney+


	Queens Park Rangers		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.75
	2.67	3.21	2.72	Watch
	2.75	3.03	2.81	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.8
	2.74	3.05	2.76	Watch
	2.67	3.21	2.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.44)	3.11 ↓ (3.33)	2.75 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Queens Park Rangers
35.1%

Draw
30.5%

Luton Town
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

28.4%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

28.7%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Queens Park Rangers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Queens Park Rangers than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.1%	23.7%	9.2%

Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. QPR will win (votes: 50 - 68.5%). Luton will win (votes: 7 - 9.6%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 21.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for QPR: 57.8% – 79.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nardi P. (G) 20. Ashby H. 3. Dunne J. 15. Fox M. 22. Paal K. 40. Varane J. 8. Field S. 11. Smyth P. 21. Morgan K. 10. Chair I. 12. Frey M.	24. Kaminski T. (G) 29. Holmes T. 6. McGuinness M. 3. Bell A. 2. Walters R. 20. Walsh L. 22. Dabo L. 13. Nakamba M. 14. Chong T. 37. Nelson Z. 9. Morris C. (C)
Substitutes
6. Clarke-Salter J. 4. Colback J. 19. Dixon-Bonner E. 17. Edwards R. 26. Kolli R. 28. Lloyd A. 24. Madsen N. 14. Saito K. 13. Walsh J. (G)	11. Adebayo E. 5. Andersen M. 19. Brown J. 18. Clark J. 27. Hashioka D. 8. Krauss T. 23. Krul T. (G) 17. Mpanzu P. 10. Woodrow C.
Coaches
Cifuentes M.	Edwards R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Frey M. ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 1, McGuinness M. ⚽, Nelson Z. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Varane J. 🟨,
56', Chong T. 🟨,
61', Smyth P. ↓, Saito K. ↑,
61', Varane J. ↓, Edwards R. ↑,
62', 2 - 1, Fox M. ⚽, Chair I. (A),
69', Ashby H. ↓, Colback J. ↑,
69', Frey M. ↓, Lloyd A. ↑,
75', Nakamba M. ↓, Adebayo E. ↑,
78', Nelson Z. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
85', Dabo L. ↓, Woodrow C. ↑,
86', Walters R. ↓, Clark J. ↑,
86', Holmes T. ↓, Hashioka D. ↑,
88', Morgan K. ↓, Clarke-Salter J. ↑,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 16 and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches QPR won 3.

Recent matches QPR is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Luton is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in QPR: Andersen L. (Calf Injury) Celar Z. (Muscle Injury) Cook S. (Foot Injury) Dembele K. (Muscle Injury) Morrison L. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Luton: Baptiste S. (Calf Injury) Burke R. (Hip Injury) Doughty A. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Heart Problems) Mengi T. (Knee Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches QPR won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 18:13 (average 1.8:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams QPR won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:7 (average 2:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Queens Park Rangers
English League Championship
01.01.25	Queens Park Rangers - Watford	3:1 ✺
29.12.24	Norwich City - Queens Park Rangers	1:1 ✺
26.12.24	Swansea City - Queens Park Rangers	3:0 ✺
21.12.24	Queens Park Rangers - Preston North End	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Bristol City - Queens Park Rangers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WTLWT
- Luton Town
English League Championship
01.01.25	Luton Town - Norwich City	0:1 ✺
29.12.24	Swansea City - Luton Town	2:1 ✺
26.12.24	Bristol City - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.24	Luton Town - Derby County	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Blackburn Rovers - Luton Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
30.08.24	Luton Town - Queens Park Rangers	1:2
English League Cup
27.08.24	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	2:1 penalties
English League Championship
29.12.22	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	0:3
15.10.22	Luton Town - Queens Park Rangers	3:1
13.03.22	Luton Town - Queens Park Rangers	1:2
19.11.21	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	2:0
08.05.21	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	3:1

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