Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 2 - ROUND 9

Date: 21 October 2023, Saturday


	Málaga		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.5	5.5
	1.52	3.6	5.5
	1.55	3.75	6
	1.59	3.78	5.82
	1.59	3.78	5.82
	1.56	3.8	5.65
	1.54	3.7	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.41)	3.7 ↓ (4)	5.67 ↓ (7.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
58.9%

Draw
24.8%

Real Madrid Castilla
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.1%

23%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.5%

21.9%

11.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Málaga's form might have worsened.

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Málaga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Málaga - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrero A. (G) 2. Gabilondo J. 20. Monte N. 4. Galilea E. 18. Sanchez D. 10. Larrubia D. 16. Rodriguez G. (C) 12. Molina M. 11. Villodres K. 17. Dioni 19. Fernandez Jaen R.	1. Canizares L. (G) 2. Tobias V. 4. Carrillo A. 16. Asencio R. 3. Obrador R. 8. Zidane T. 15. Pujol E. 22. Palacios C. 20. Angel M. 10. Paz N. 17. Garcia G.

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 10).

Málaga in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Real Madrid Castilla is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Real Madrid Castilla could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Málaga is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Málaga to win the game is with odds 1.56.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
12.10.23	Málaga - Melilla	1:0 ✺
08.10.23	Recreativo Huelva - Málaga	1:1 ✺
01.10.23	Málaga - San Fernando	1:0 ✺
24.09.23	Linares Deportivo - Málaga	0:1 ✺
16.09.23	Málaga - Granada B	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTWWW
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
15.10.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Atlético Sanluqueño	1:0 ✺
07.10.23	Castellón - Real Madrid Castilla	4:1 ✺
30.09.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Recreativo Huelva	1:2 ✺
23.09.23	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	0:1 ✺
16.09.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Atlético Madrid B	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLLWT

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