Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 28

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Romano Jose Fouto (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	CMM TV, Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Mérida AD		CD Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.4	4.5
	1.72	3.5	4.45
	1.75	3.85	4.2
	1.73	3.97	4.14	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4
	1.74	3.6	4.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.64)	3.6 ↑ (3.5)	4.22 ↓ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
52.9%

Draw
25.4%

CD Guadalajara
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

26.2%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

25.6%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

CD Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Mérida AD - CD Guadalajara Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mérida AD will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mérida AD (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Guadalajara (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mérida AD (votes: 1 - 50%). Guadalajara (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 15. Martinez G. 4. Pareja L. 5. Dominguez J. 23. Verges E. 10. Doncel C. 8. Solar M. 21. Beneit R. 7. Chiqui 14. El Ftouhi S. 9. Hallsson S.	1. Zarco A. (G) 5. Gallardo D. 15. Rodriguez V. 23. Casado J. 16. Cadete 11. Alvarez U. 14. Tavares R. 7. Neskes 8. Calvo T. 19. Munoz P. 17. Gomez J.
Substitutes
11. Areso J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 18. Dibrani B. 6. Geovanny 12. Gomes R. 17. Herranz Corral V. 20. Jacobo R. 28. Martinez M. 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.	10. Amigo D. 33. Exposito R. 18. Martinez J. 27. Mayo N. 3. Moreno A. 6. Rojo P. 34. Susilla S. 29. Verdu M. 13. Vicente D. (G)
Coaches
Beltran F.	Peinado J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', Tavares R. 🟨,
33', El Ftouhi S. 🟨,
34', Gomez J. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Alvarez U. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
61', 0 - 2, Alvarez U. ⚽,
63', Beneit R. ↓, Jacobo R. ↑,
63', Martinez G. ↓, Geovanny ↑,
63', Hallsson S. ↓, Gomes R. ↑,
64', Doncel C. 🟨,
71', Neskes ↓, Amigo D. ↑,
73', Doncel C. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
73', Solar M. ↓, Dibrani B. ↑,
76', 1 - 2, El Ftouhi S. ⚽,
78', Calvo T. ↓, Rojo P. ↑,
78', Munoz P. ↓, Exposito R. ↑,
78', Alvarez U. ↓, Mayo N. ↑,
90+1', Zarco A. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 3, Amigo D. ⚽,
90+6', Gomez J. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 4, Casado J. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Recent performances by Mérida AD have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guadalajara is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Mérida AD is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mérida AD won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.03.26	Mérida AD - Talavera de la Reina	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Celta de Vigo B - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Mérida AD - Cacereño	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Ourense CF - Mérida AD	3:1 ✺
08.02.26	Mérida AD - Zamora	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTWLW
- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.03.26	CD Guadalajara - Celta de Vigo B	3:0 ✺
01.03.26	Zamora - CD Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	CD Guadalajara - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Lugo - CD Guadalajara	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	CD Guadalajara - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Mérida AD	0:2

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