Match Info

Latvian Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Jaunmārupes stadions (Jaunmārupe)


	Mārupe		Grobiņa

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.20	1.43
	7.3	4.95	1.3
	8.01	5.07	1.28
	7.27	4.98	1.34	Watch
	7.15	4.8	1.3
	9.25	4.9	1.27	Watch
	8.4	5.6	1.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.59 ↑ (3.55)	4.93 ↑ (3.94)	1.3 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mārupe
12%

Draw
18.4%

Grobiņa
69.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.2%

22.7%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

24.1%

55.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mārupe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mārupe's form might have worsened.

Grobiņa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grobiņa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mārupe than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mārupe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grobiņa than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grobiņa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mārupe - Grobiņa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Bareika K. (G) 11. Cebotarjovs V. 32. Cevers R. 26. Jansons K. 6. Komorovskis K. 7. Korsaks K. (C) 29. Krievins G. 3. Kuliks M. 20. Speks R. 25. Strupiss K. 68. Zengis R.	21. Ozols R. (G) 6. Corryn M. 77. Dodo 3. Druzinins D. (C) 29. Matyushenko I. 8. Olatunde-Matthew O. 11. Rascevskis O. 87. Ribeiro J. 2. Rupeiks K. 14. Sidorovs M. 25. Sirbu D.
Substitutes
9. Dobrajs M. 17. Korolcuks R. 77. Minasyan A. 99. Pals R. 30. Penka R. 10. Sadovnikovs R. 15. Seliverstovs A. 16. Silins M. 55. Smeilis R. (G)	13. Aruna A. 27. Baravykas R. 10. Dobrecovs D. 23. Fjodorovs M. 9. Kholod A. 1. Kudrjavcevs V. (G) 99. Puzirevskis A. 20. Yamada H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Rascevskis O. ↓, Baravykas R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sirbu D. ↓, Puzirevskis A. ↑,
56', Zengis R. ↓, Minasyan A. ↑,
56', Krievins G. ↓, Sadovnikovs R. ↑,
65', Korsaks K. ↓, Penka R. ↑,
82', Minasyan A. 🟨,
84', Cevers R. 🟨,
85', 0 - 1, Corryn M. ⚽, Dodo (A),
88', Kuliks M. ↓, Pals R. ↑,
88', Cebotarjovs V. ↓, Silins M. ↑,
90+1', Corryn M. ↓, Fjodorovs M. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mārupe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Grobiņa is considered a favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mārupes SC
Latvian 1 Liga
04.07.26	Mārupe - Smiltene	2:1 ✺
27.06.26	Riga Mariners - Mārupe	2:0 ✺
Latvian Cup
19.06.26	Mārupe - Aliance	4:2 ET ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
14.06.26	Mārupe - JFK Ventspils	1:2 ✺
Latvian Cup
30.05.26	JFC Viola - Mārupe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWLW
- Grobiņas SC
Latvian Virsliga
05.07.26	Grobiņa - Tukums 2000	3:1 ✺
29.06.26	Jelgava - Grobiņa	2:0 ✺
25.06.26	Grobiņa - Auda Riga	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	BFC Daugavpils - Grobiņa	1:0 ✺
16.06.26	Grobiņa - Liepāja	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WLTLW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mārupes SC
Latvian 1 Liga
24.10.26	Mārupe - Riga Mariners	✺
- Grobiņas SC
Latvian Virsliga
26.10.26	Grobiņa - Riga	✺

Mārupe - Grobiņa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide