Match Info

1. Liga - Round 24

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Latvia	17:00	Futbols TV


	Mārupe		Riga Mariners

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.50	1.46
	5.10	4.50	1.43
	5.72	4.78	1.37
	5.1	4.7	1.46	Watch
	5.65	4.70	1.35
	6.29	4.90	1.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.44 ↑ (4.11)	4.68 ↑ (4.28)	1.4 ↓ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mārupe
16.6%

Draw
19.2%

Riga Mariners
64.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

21.9%

21.1%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mārupe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mārupe's form might have worsened.

Riga Mariners has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Riga Mariners's recent form is better than expected.

Mārupe - Riga Mariners Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
31', 0 - 1, Pavlovskis A. ⚽, Bokans E. (A),
41', 0 - 2, Grazis A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
53', 0 - 3, Stuglis E. ⚽, Owusu R. (A),
68', 0 - 4, Grazis A. ⚽, Caune M. (A),
76', 1 - 4, Denisovs A. ⚽, Krievins G. (A),
84', 1 - 5, Owusu R. ⚽, Caune M. (A),
86', 1 - 6, Bekeris H. ⚽, Caune M. (A),

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 6th and 4th).

Riga Mariners has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Mārupe could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Riga Mariners for this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Mārupe has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:7 (averaging 0.7:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mārupe against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Riga Mariners	24	16	5	3	60:31	29	53
6	Marupe	24	10	3	11	38:40	-2	33

Last Results with these Odds

Mārupe - the odds 4.11 are the expected chance of winning is 21.92%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mārupes SC
Latvian 1 Liga
18.10.26	JFK Ventspils - Mārupe	0:0 ✺
20.09.26	Mārupe - Riga 2	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Mārupe - Tukums 2000 2	5:0 ✺
29.08.26	Mārupe - JDFS Alberts	0:2 ✺
22.08.26	Valmiera - Mārupe	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TTWLL
- Riga Mariners
Latvian 1 Liga
17.10.26	Riga Mariners - Skanstes	4:3 ✺
10.10.26	Metta - Riga Mariners	4:0 ✺
19.09.26	Valmiera - Riga Mariners	2:4 ✺
12.09.26	Smiltene - Riga Mariners	4:1 ✺
05.09.26	Riga Mariners - Rēzekne	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
27.06.26	Riga Mariners - Mārupe	2:0
09.08.25	Riga Mariners - Mārupe	3:1
12.04.25	Mārupe - Riga Mariners	1:2

Mārupe - Riga Mariners